From my point of view I was right with the diff prediction.
The average difficulty for the past 3 months was 14% instead of 15% so I guess you were right.
Why didn't you just say his estimations were off by 1% instead of dismissing it as "simply unreal"?
I will refrain from making any assumption regarding the difficulty because nobody knows what hashing power will be deployed in the future and i don't want to influence people by telling them that difficulty will be X or Y. Everyone should make take their own decision based on what they find fitted for themselves, but i will only say that a nonstop grow of 15%-20% is unsustainable. If you think that it's not worth buying miners then there are many more like you which means that difficulty will grow at a slower rate than 15%-20%. For me it's simple. I will just give you an example. At 100 billion difficulty and 500$ per BTC having 100TH which consumes 100kW would make you around 3k$ per month that's not taking into consideration the cooling that you will need. Also deploying 100 TH means investing A LOT of money. Who would invest A LOT of money just to make a couple thousand per month? Actually if we take into consideration the cooling i think that you are already in the negative values which means the big growth will stop or slow down very much.
Not sure what's the wrong assumption here.
Hope that helps.
Also how about you show me the context of that prediction? I think it was before specs were released because the specs definitely change the prediction. Also the market price of the time of the prediction matters and also the time of the actual price announcement matters. So don't be a journalist which pulls things out of context to give things a different meaning.
Nope it was after specs were released.
Ok after specs, but
what was the market $/Gh back then? I can't remember
when did FC announced the pricing. Any help?
It was after specs and chip pricing. Just before making that prediction you said:
It's hard to have miners cheap and profitable for miners. They need to maximize profits for their shareholders and judging by history they have always sold miners at very big prices. It's hard for me to think that now they will do a dumping sale when VMC and Bitmain are under 2$/GH. In a few days we will see the prices.
to which I replied
They claim it will be the best price per gh.
AM chips will be sold for as low as $0.5/gh.
Anyways it doesn't even matter what information you had before making your prediction. My point is that to make an "accurate" prediction you need information you don't have.