Quote from: twentyseventy on July 25, 2014, 06:31:57 PM

Quote from: pabad812 on July 25, 2014, 04:22:43 PM

Expected next Bitcoin difficulty change is currently at +7.61% in about 6.5 hours. Will there be a B.SELL dividend issued tomorrow?

I highly recommend creating your own excel sheet or modifying Lohoris' to suit BDD. If you do, make sure that you don't take into account the extra 10 day buffer than DMS had (BDD does not have this).

Quote from: Lohoris on July 25, 2014, 04:50:50 PM

Remember I created this spreadsheet for DMS, it should be easy to tune it to work with BDD.

A quick and easy way to check to see if there will be a SELL Dividend issued is to perform the Div Calculation with the Next Difficulty (or expected Next Difficulty) and then multiply it by 200 Days.

The expected next Difficulty is 18,700,088,224, which will provide a pretty good estimate since there are only ~25 blocks until the change. Plug that into the Div Formula (Hint Hint: http://wolfr.am/1riNM1w)

This gives us a new daily div of about 0.00013446

0.00013446 * 200 = 0.026892

So, we know that the new Reserve is 0.026892. In order for a Dividend to be issued to SELL, the NAV/U has to be higher than the new Reserve.

We don't know the exact NAV/U for tomorrow, as more EXCH could be sold or MINE/SELL pairs bought back. But, we know today's NAV/U, which is 0.02622950

So, is the NAV/U (0.02622950) > The Reserve (0.026892)?

Nope. So, there is no excess capital on hand and, therefore, no SELL dividend will be issued tomorrow (barring something unlikely happening, of course - and these are estimates, but most likely very close to where we will be tomorrow).

I realize that this is a long answer to a short question, but I'm trying to teach you to fish here.

TL;DR Read it, it's not even that long.

Great explanation. Thank you very much!

One more question: I know you post the daily Balance Post Divs. How is the daily Balance calculated?