Quote from: xiaoping82 on July 31, 2014, 12:15:05 PM

Conspiracy Coin Analysis 31.07.2014

Some of you know me as xiaoping. Let me use this nickname for privacy and professional reasons. I work in financial sector for one of the largest financial corporations.

For a long time Ive been mainly investing in standard financial instruments, like shares, futures, currency pairs on FOREX or derivatives.

Some time ago, I focused on crypto-currencies, when I noticed their big potential. Nowadays, Im not surprised with daily profit at 100%. No other instrument can even achieve ROP at 10% weekly, which is normal for this new market.

After some profitable transactions and strengthening my own strategy,

I decided to share my experience and analyses with community. This one, as well as the first one, concerns Conspiracy Coin.

Specification

0 % pre-mine

Algorithm: X11 POW

Symbol: CYC

Max. # of coins: 33 Million (currently 1,8 million on the market) - only 5,4%

Block Reward: 33

Block Time: 2 Minutes

Difficulty Retarget: DGW

As mentioned above, it is my second analysis concerning Conspiracy Coin.

Since the time I published the first one (07.19.14), a lot has happened,

both with CYC and in its environment. I am sure it did not escape your attention.

Price reached 17k and then dropped, which looked like common pump & dump action, what in fact was caused by unclear MintPals voting policies, and related massive operations of cutting votes of currencies applying to MintPals

market. Unfortunately, for some unknown reason, comb-out strongly affected Conspiracy Coin as the ranking leader.

In my opinion, it was very strange operation, which demonstrated their lack of confidence in large and strong community. It is even more surprising, considering the fact that MintPal implemented additional CAPTCHA protection against cheating behaviours or bots. Personally I felt consequences of those unexpected actions, because at that time I was on business trip and did not have any chance for reaction. That caused, I stayed with wallet full of CYCs.

At the very beginning it was hard to keep myself calm, but technical and fundamental analysis changed my perspective.

Let me share some of my insights:

1. There is still small amount of sell transactions.

2. There were executed some big purchases over 10k (like this one at the 16k level).

3. There is a big wall at 8k, which absorbed as far over 10 BTC.

FACTORS AFFECTING THE UPWARD TREND:

1. We are expecting a new Whitepaper it should be released during next few days (there is a possibility that developer will relate to the new electricity generator).

2. Possible presence on three new exchanges will engage more big investors.

3. Change of direction while aspiring to Cryptsy and Hitbtc. MintPal is treated by community as a leader (I still can see fast growth of votes number, which will soon place CYC on 4^th position).

4. The Developer holds his CYCs, what indicates his long-term involvement in the currency.

The main analysis

Here I want to focus on Bittrex, as the biggest exchange. Actually Poloniex can be omitted, as the one, which is following actual leader.

Since the beginning of my observations, I have noticed that some big walls were built. Please pay your attention to the one on 8k level it looks like rock-solid and remains so far unconquered. Someone bought a lot of CYC at this price.

Coinmarketcap

Coinmarketcap shows that CYC is on 102^nd place. Market cap is still very small and the coin have potential for fast growth. Please note that CYC, with almost 500 people community, is actually after Copperlark where market and coin are dead. Also there are many other coins in top 100 of Coinmarketcap, which actually do not exist anymore. Considering this, Conspiracy Coin should be placed between 50^th and 80^th place soon.

Exchange

Conspiracy Coin is listed only on Bittrex and Poloniex so far. There is a big chance, it will be added on Hitbtc, Bter, MintPal and Cryptsy during next days! It is a HUGE potential for growth.

Chart

Today we have broken the downtrend. I think, it is caused by the higher position on the MintPals voting list (despite the fact, I am against MintPal and would be happy to see CYC on Cryptsy or Hitbtc). There is a high possibility for a large move in coming days, due to the position on MintPal. This time I am more sceptic and see the maximum on 0,0003 BTC.

Facts worth to consider:

1. There is a big transition of many new currencies into the mature currencies. In my opinion Conspiracy Coin is one of them, as it is on the market since a long time and looks stable.

2. Wolong is back - he will be looking for a coin to pump. Is Conspiracy Coin potential candidate?

Buy and sell orders

This buy wall was placed on the level of 8k long time ago (c.a. 2-4 weeks ago). Someone holds the price on this level and does not allow the price fall down below this level. Therefore I consider 8k local minimum and strong support level.

Demand / Supply

Strong demand and weak supply. There are clearly more buyers than sellers on the market. Guess who will win when Conspiracy Coin will be added on Cryptsy or MintPal???

Statistics from Bittrex:

Total sellers amount (ASK): 6,342 BTC

Total buyers amount (BID): 10,606 BTC

Order book

Can you see the difference between ASKs and BIDs? There are only a few sellers to the level of 20k sat (0,0002 BTC).

Worth to remember:

We are expecting a white-paper on Friday or during the weekend. This is one of the most important events in coming days.

There is a very big chance that the coin will be added to Cryptsy, Hitbtc and MintPal, if voting continues to be so successful. Most probable date is this or the next weekend.

New implementation and new features from the developer in the nearest future

Strong community focused on CYC - they talk about conspiracy, banksters, Illuminati, NWO etc.

Recommendation: 0,00045 BTC:

Strong Buy recommendation in range between 0,00008 and 0,0002 BTC !

Neutral buy recommendation: 0,0002 - 0,0003 btc !

It is expected, that after entering Cryptsy and MintPal, the price will raise significantly. There are almost no sellers on the market and higher levels will be reached very quickly. We must remember that someone bought almost 200 000 Conspiracy Coins at 16k sat in one order. I suppose, he didnt sell so far and wait for the good opportunity far above 16k, seeing the potential of the coin. Looks like a very serious investor to me. Consider this and stay focused!

I wish you happy trading and unlimited profits!!!

xiaoping