Quote from: right wing authoritarian on August 01, 2014, 07:45:48 AM

Can we say that the current bitcoin price is the best predictor of the future price as is the case with other currencies? Has anyone done a serial correlation study or something similar. I saw a quote that daily bitcoin volatility is about 7.6%. So in a year whatever your prediction you should plus or minus 7.6*(365^0.5) percent.

You got part of the answer correct, and that is the current price trend is the best predictor of future price, and in that regard, the price of bitcoin is in NO way at a stable value.... Accordingly, BTC future prices are likely to be going up... up and up... just like they have done in the past, yet maybe NOT

The more likely outcome is that BTC is going to experience between 25% and 800% annual appreciations in price for the next several years... Maybe in the meantime, there could be some changes or some new and upcoming competitive asset class... but until then BTC is the main game in town.