Yeah I really think in the current state of Bitcoin that shuns all the good news that occur, an ETF would most likely cause a $15 rallye and then drop back $20... I guess they should launch in winter or when things have changed in Bitcoins ecosystem.
Nope, an ETF will change EVERYTHING. Before ETF, gold was $250 an ounce for a long time. After various gold ETF were created, it went to $1600 an ounce and is currently $1300. ETF will only have a BIGGER effect on Bitcoin, because gold already had a mature investment/trading community before ETF were created for it, yet it still had a huge effect on gold price.
Really? That's a pretty bold statement! I hope you're right, of course, but what if nothing happens then? But I guess it's too early to speculate before the ETF even started. You also still think it will have a big influence, even if people just sold their SecondMarket BTCs?