Quote from: oda.krell on August 14, 2014, 05:03:23 PM

Quote from: Blitz on August 14, 2014, 04:18:04 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on August 14, 2014, 02:09:37 PM

Quote from: Heartbit.io on August 14, 2014, 02:05:50 PM

Not really, huobi and okcoin have mostly fake volumes. Biggest platform are bitstamp&bitfinex then btcchina. Not saying that huobi and okcoin has to be ignored (we are adding them very soon ) but their volumes has to be taken as half fake.

I avoid calling it "fake" volume, but I agree. The current (daily) leg of the capitulation is, in my opinion, mainly driven by Bitfinex - not really a surprise, given the huge built-up leveraged long positions that Blitz highlighted in his post ages ago. Despite their daily volume still being dwarfed by the Chinese exchanges.

So that's further evidence for those of us who believe that, while CNY volume might be "real", it is simply less relevant, per dollar, being largely automated, zero fee volume.

In my view, China played a much larger role than you think recently. Prior to this downturn a couple days ago, it was them who were the only bullish ones, higher than all the others, and preventing the price from slipping repeatedly. It was the sudden weakness of Huobi with a lower price than others (I don't watch OKCoin) and its incredibly lackluster bids that have made this possible, as I see it.

Interesting observation. Didn't see it, but I'll try if I can find that view by looking at it myself.

Let me change my point a bit: by volume alone, China, and China alone should matter (cue Jorge). Bitfinex played a crucial role today. Bitstamp does as well (the mini recovery right now is mainly driven by stamp and finex, to my eyes).

So the old method, look at the highest volume exchange, and ignore all others, doesn't work anymore. Agreed with that statement?

Sure, I don't think China is always leading anymore, and their volume numbers are incomparable anyway since they still have no fees. I just watch stamp/finex/huobi and when all 3 converge (no significant/unusual divergences), the trend is clear. When there's a divergence, then we have lots of friction and it's hard to sustain movement before resolving it.