Math ph.d candidate here... and I'm genuinely asking questions so if I'm making a mistake somewhere please point it out to me.. the problem is laid out as I see it as follows: In the given spreadsheet, for 60 / 600 compromised nodes there is a .98% chance of the coins being traced (using 2 hops of mixing). So let's round that to 1% to simply the math. Now if you only do one transaction, then that's a low chance. But I want to use coins more than once. So lets say I do something that has a 1% of happening for 100 times. What is the chance that one of those times it will happen? The math is laid out here:
https://uk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080126081910AAdbGVx very nicely. Apparently it's a 63% that one of these times it will happen. As I've said, 3-4 times per day / month is about 100 times. So if I want to make about 100 transactions anonymously per month, that means there is a 63% that one of them will be discovered i.e. "I get caught" Now, I'm asking how does this change for more hops... I feel like this is a very good and interesting question. Please let me know so I (and others) can udnerstand the level of anonymity provided.
Only applies if the coin source is constant. That is not the case in reality. Coins come from different addresses, which have themselves been mixed.