Quote from: r0ger_l on August 17, 2014, 09:15:16 PM

So it boils down to we need enough hash power to expect a result of statistical significance +/- 5%. In order to acheive that in a 14 day period there has to be a number we need to reach or pass in hash power. I think we did fine with 1% or more of network speed. I am sure someone can do the math, but just a guess is 1 to 2% of total should get us within a range that we can honestly say you make the same here or there over time.

I played poker for a living back in the day. I know AA vs KJ is 80% fav, but I would not want to have to base my poker career of one hand. I would never want to bet it all on that one hand. Now if someone gives me those hands and says winner best of 100, I might bet it all on the AA. If they gave me best of 10,000 it is a no brainer I will take the bet for sure. So how many hands doe we need to play in 14 days (hash power) to expect a result of any statistical significance?

You're over-analysing things.

Don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong with checking things over; but you need to relax a bit.

Bitcoin mining happens in phases. Each phase so far has been around 6 months ( ish, near enough ). During each 6 month phase difficulty continues to go up. So, slowly but surely, your mining kit gets less effective. An S3 will probably last about 7-8 months due to how well it's designed. The old S1 is now winking out after 8 months-ish.

It's just how it is.

So planning for the next fortnight ( or it's Doomsday ) is not the way to do it. You average over a month. And ideally you buy hardware that will pay for itself over the next 4-5 months and has a power-profile over 1.05 GH / w ( based on today's tech ). The S3 is a good example here.

However, it's undeniable that Bitminter is having a bad month ( it's been 3 weeks as the bottom performer of my 4 mined pools so far ). But then Bitminter had 3 months of pretty ok luck before ( we were regularly ahead of the curve ), so having a correction is quite natural.

There's no need to abandon Minter. Just leave less hash here until this Storm passes. If you leave some your account will remain open, and that means you'll get instant returns on your work when it's safe to move some hash back.

And, being honest, if you can't handle the peaks and troughs of Bitminter then permanently leave some of your hash on a much larger pool ( so that you get regular payments ). That will smooth the ride for you.

I only have 1/6th of my business hash here at present ( it was 2/5 before ). Due to this past month being rotten. But then that's life. If I ditch Minter entirely I'll have to spend a few days warming my account back up etc etc ( based on Doc's statements about how Mining Pools have some defence against luck-chasers ).

I predicted a 2 week bad-patch a few weeks back, due to how well we were doing. I was one week out on when it would hit, but so far my hunch has held true.

IT'S JUST A HUNCH, THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES, BUT EVEN SO. As a miner you always get final say on where you put your hash. You make the call.

As such I'll make another prediction. Another hunch:

- I'm guessing that by the end of this week we'll be back on an even keel, and performing at an average rate ( not the regular good luck we had in the past, but certainly ok mining ).

Obviously I might be wrong, but Doc's graph shows the peaks and troughs I always mention ( including how long they last ), and this trough can't last forever ( due to the Law of Averages ).

Bitminter won't be in a bad way forever, and don't panic about difficulty. If you've bought decent kit at a reasonable price ( like S3's and Coincraft A1 units ) you'll be fine

As a poker player you'll get this: I'm only a grand in. It pays for a few IT repairs for me at present, which is handy. So there is some profit. But if Bitcoin ( the product ) dies tomorrow then I only owe the Bank a grand. Which I can cover with my normal earnings.

And when Minter is playing a bit nicer I'll shift some more hash back here. Once I believe the storm has passed.

I leave my personal mining here anyway ( as I have done so for the past 6 months ), so I know the Law of Averages will cover that one. But business is business, and I have to consider my return before I take the plunge etc.