Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
I personally have a lot more trouble with the mid term calls than with the short term predictions. Identifying a likely developing trend, and selling or buying into it seems relatively easy for me. But the question how to take your profits, in USD or BTC, *that's* the tricky bit, imo. Park them in BTC, and you'll see your profits melt away. Park them in USD, and one swing you missed later, and you only buy 2/3 of your original coins back.
How about open a small "hedge fond"? You stay with 50% of profit from beating the market (for example).
Not sure, but is this a test of sorts? I'm absolutely sure I'm not the only one outperforming the market (i.e. buy & hold), and pretty sure there are a lot more successful traders than me, both in percent and absolute profits. I'm doing... okay.
Anyway, I only started trading last year, and wouldn't claim I really know what's going on, and handle other people's money. Also, a very practical consideration: in an illiquid market like this, I'm already struggling with slippage at my current volume. No idea how that could be handled if managed funds are more - guess that requires a completely different type of trading strategy, that I simply have no clue about.
Your attitude will make you a better trader yet. When I first started trading the 'coin back in '11, I thought TA would be key. I was wrong. The thing with bitcoin its not only the TA. Technicians always say market news and fundamentals are built into the analysis but with bitcoin you need to be able to "feel" the market. Its difficult to put into words...almost like describing a taste to someone. I hope that after a few years playing in this market, you will develop a gut feeling about the situation. The CMF coupled with MACD, Stochastic RSI and linear regression will hopefully give you a better feel for what's happening. I hope your trade goes well. FYI adhere to the KISS principle, it helps (for me at least).
