Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Ryans' log
by
oyvinds
on 01/09/2014, 05:46:28 UTC
As for the July 2013 bottom, that capitulation was mild because the trading happened in a narrow range: after a harsh wave A, the trapped / fake fiat on MtGox (still leading) provided support and even made the market look bullish for a while (local bottoms: 50$, 80$, 90$ then drop to 65$).

Never forget this when considering where the market may go in the future: A lot of the rally to above $1000 were driven by China, sure, but a whole lot of it was also driven by non-existing fiat used to buy mostly non-existing BTC over at MtGox. There is a reason MtGoxBTC were priced $100 above the rest of the world quite a few times.

A few select people got to withdraw fiat from MtGox for a while and thought they did "arbitrage", in the end they too were severely burned (as they deserved) by their greed.

Why is this relevant? There never was any real demand for BTC at the $1000 price level, it was simply those with MtGoxUSD who would pay any price in order to get something out before the lit-match-game ended. What is most important to remember in this regard is that the emptygox withdraw problems started way back when the price difference between Bitstamp and MtGox was $90 vs $100 and the entire rise from $100 to $1000 should be seen in that light.