Quote from: smooth on September 01, 2014, 11:21:02 PM

Quote from: canth on September 01, 2014, 11:15:11 PM

Quote from: rpietila on September 01, 2014, 10:34:36 AM

Slightly positive. The uptrend continues with a higher ascent, about 3-4% per day, leading to near 1000 before 30 days, which will likely to be a venue of some shuffling of the deck. Likelihood 10-20%

Positive. 1000 is destroyed and march higher goes on relentlessly (may also make a bubble top and come down in the space of 30 days, nevertheless only after making a new ATH). Likelihood 10-20%.

Stellar. Some external event means that investment capital flocks into Monero, and even $10 million compared to the market cap of about the same range means that a completely new range is established. Price can go to 5000 in an instant, yet will find its support level much lower. Likelihood 2-10%.

It's impressive that price speculation has come as far as it has what with XMR lacking some major ease of use features. I understand that there is a priority list for the developers and I'm not questioning that. However, how high can speculation really go without a large base of users that require things like SPV wallets?

I say that any of the bottom 3 scenarios are not plausible or sustainable until development progresses further. Bitcoin had Armory, Blockchain.info and mobile offerings before it hit a market cap of $100m (~ 15X today's XMR cap). Is it reasonable to expect Monero to do that with a CLI / desktop app that requires a more or less dedicated computer to run?

Speculation can go extremely high if the roadmap is clear and confidence it will be achieved is high (I'm not saying either of these is necessarily the case).

If you expect a $100 million market cap in six months when ease of use is improved, and you expect that to happen with 80% probability, then a fair value now is very roughly $40 million. All inputs here are hypothetical but the model is not.

Fair points. I was going to play devil's advocate and ask about concerns with someone forking the work done by XMR devs, while accelerating ease of use features - but then I caught myself. Open source works both directions and momentum of the first (fair) mover is not insignificant.

Are there a particular set of missives that describe anticipated dev work and any expected donation costs to accelerate the goals?