Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
wachtwoord
on 02/09/2014, 12:17:01 UTC

Long-term (up to 3 years or more), I place 1% probability on $1 million, 10% probability on $100,000, 20% probability on $50,000, and 80% probability on $10,000.


Those add up to 111% Tongue

They are not mutually exclusively. Each lower amount is achieved on the way to the higher one.

I just pulled numbers out of my arse, but the essence of my opinion is:

1. $million is a very remote fantasy. (as far as I know, adoption rates are no where near that trajectory)
2. $100,000 is very unlikely but not impossible.
3. $50,000 is somewhat unlikely but less fantastical.
4. $10,000 is somewhat likely, but not assured.
5. $3000 is very likely and nearly assured.
6. $0.10, $1, $100, and $1000 have already been achieved.

Ah, you're numbers were: "these will someday be passed numbers?" I thought we were talking long term value.