That said, I find it difficult to time the macro events. It is even difficult to recognize them, through the crafted storylines of crony corporate journalism, and increasingly difficult to recognize them through the astroturfed agit prop and mental flak of the infected internet. Difficult, and exhausting.
I suggest deferring to Armstrong's ECM computer model of international capital flows.
For estimating asset values on short and medium term scales, what I find most productive, in terms of timing, is gaming scenarios, estimating driver events, and tracking the over-extension of correlation schemas, responding to their breakdown.
This is often correct 50% of the time.
Armstrong made a valid statistical point that the longer the time frame, the more reliable the prediction, if you have his database. He has proven this to be true. The short-term is noisy, the long-term follows a predictable cycle.
In BTC, the eventual listing of COIN is a likely watershed.
I didn't think of that. Am I correct to assume it is an ETF. When is that?