Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 09:06:40 AM

Fallacy #31: Appeal to authority.

Quote from: Newbie1022 on September 03, 2014, 09:02:56 AM

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 08:36:04 AM

Quote from: zby on September 03, 2014, 08:20:02 AM

Hmm - do you say that the line you are watching is not 'USD/BTC = exp(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * D), D being the number of days' anymore? Have you changed the coefficients or have you changed it altogether so some other function?

It is always, every day, the line (or other construct) that gives the highest R^2 fit with the USD/BTC price data between 2009-1-3 and present_day. For all the time it has been an exponential function, which is linear when plotted in logarithmic space as I do.

Quote

Your comment about only one best fitting trendline only makes sense if you constrain your search space - for example by choosing only exponential functions.

A side note - if you for example allow for trendlines to be polynomials of unrestricted degree - then you'd be able to fit the trendline to the price chart exactly (with no divergencies at all).

1. Not really. Others just don't come close. 2. That's quite theoretical, since I cannot convince myself that a model with more than 2nd degree term is anything but noise with no predictive power, and Excel allows construction to 6th degree, with no improvement in R^2.

What IS important is if the growth trend is slowing or not. I currently hold the opinion that the trend is pretty much intact and price is about to increase 10x in a year. AnonyMint thinks it has slowed.

If we ever hit $5000/BTC... I give you legal ownership of my left kidney.

I like my kidneys... so what I am saying is that will never happen. Not next year. Not ever. Merry Christmas.

I could see $1500-$2000 in a bullish scenario.

Too many new players, too much regulatory bulls---, no Willy Bot, reduced black market presence, newbies getting Wall Street raped, etc., etc. Just because new adoption has, historically, been at a certain rate does not mean that this new adoption will continue out into the future. The baseline for the forecast is off.

It's, logically speaking, not terribly far off the rationale that banksters and credit agencies used in assigning inflated ratings to what were truly junk bonds -- the price of housing had not historically gone down and there had not been such a batch of foreclosures in prior history (and that sample size was much larger). However, the situation had changed... you had different people buying homes, different underwriting standards and down payment requirements, the perverse incentives created through securitization and derivatives, and balloon payments that functioned as a ticking time bomb.

Here, the dynamic that has changed is different, but the result is similar... adoption rates increased more dramatically when the price was still psychologically affordable. Now, simply having seen so many people profit, a lot of new users know that they are late to the game and that the odds are higher, now, that they'll be left holding a bag rather than profit. Tack on the fact that we went pop (moved away from black markets and towards regulation, taxation, and Wall Street) and have, resultantly, lost our hipness and appeal. Yea, this s--- is going down man. I'm not saying your math is wrong, but the application is off base.

WHAT?

? THIS COMING FROM THE GUY THAT APPEALS TO HIS CASTLE IN ALMOST EVERY SINGLE POST AS THE REASON WHY PEOPLE SHOULD LISTEN TO HIM? WTF!!!!!!!!!! Roll Eyes