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Board Marketplace (Altcoins)
Re: XMR futures/options OTC thread
by
cacahouette
on 03/09/2014, 20:27:59 UTC
Long underlying is always higher than any form of theta negative strategy.

could you please elaborate and clarify what you mean here ? thx!

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I think you've really nailed it with the second bolded quote. Other people might not see it that way, particularly OTM call buyers. In the (unlikely) case of underlying --> moon, the long call always outperforms everything else.

same question here could you please clarify ? what is your metric to say that something out(under) performs ?

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Does underlying + Put k normally have the same risk profile as call k? Yes!

Is one of them therefore mispriced? Yes! (only time will tell; both could certainly be mispriced as well)

the mispricing here is clear because you can replicate the exact same risk profile for cheaper using the decorated put. If you could borrow BTC to build a position you could even reproduce the outright call to achieve the exact same leverage.

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It should not go unnoticed that general sentiment in the XMR community is very bullish. Given normal put/call parity, long call is a superior position to married put.

same question as before, what is your criteria to say something is higher/lower, just leverage ?

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Risto is making people pay, which is his prerogative. With how bullish (some) people are, I'd even go as far to argue that it's more about long leverage than anything else. From that perspective, the XMR + Put position is actually the worst of them all.
for leverage metric yes, but again if you could borrow BTC the same leverage could be achieved.

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Contrarily, if you're just expecting lots of volatility (relative to IV of the put you'd be buying), then XMR + Put is the best position available (long straddle/strangle could be argued as well depending on your upside bias/vol expectation).

(I think you probably understand these things already, but others may not.)
not sure i understand this last statement, could you please elaborate a bit ? thx!