Define 'more complicated' mathematically? Would it be what you are more familiar with?
Not a very general definition, but if model B has all the terms/functions that model A has
+ extra, then B is strictly more complicated than A.
How are you so certain that Bitcoin adoption has not slowed??
I am not saying that. What I am saying, is that:
- logistic model has (much) better R^2 than log-logistic model
- logistic model is simpler than log-logistic model
- behaviour now is well within the bounds of expected volatility (based on historical volatility ex. 2012/2013)
It is just that under these conditions there is no ground to assess a higher probability to log-logistic than logistic.
As a reply I accept your post containing a
graph how terrible fit the log-logistic model actually is and how mistaken trading signals it would have given in the past.