Quote from: AnonyMint on September 05, 2014, 10:19:29 AM

Define 'more complicated' mathematically? Would it be what you are more familiar with?

Not a very general definition, but if model B has all the terms/functions that model A has + extra, then B is strictly more complicated than A.

Quote

How are you so certain that Bitcoin adoption has not slowed??

I am not saying that. What I am saying, is that:

- logistic model has (much) better R^2 than log-logistic model
- logistic model is simpler than log-logistic model
- behaviour now is well within the bounds of expected volatility (based on historical volatility ex. 2012/2013)

It is just that under these conditions there is no ground to assess a higher probability to log-logistic than logistic.

As a reply I accept your post containing a graph how terrible fit the log-logistic model actually is and how mistaken trading signals it would have given in the past.