My dissension is that I think that curve fit is basically useless as a trading tool and is dubious as a long-term predictor.
You don't need that crutch to convince yourself to continue to hold Bitcoin, as even a log-logistic model would point to 10 bagger from here within a few years at most. But your curve fit could make you overconfident and cause you to miss out on searching for other more undervalued assets.
I've read you say you have a hard time finding anything with as much astronomical upside potential as Bitcoin.
I am not trading (not a trader). I am trying to access rate of adoption and total end game adoption of Bitcoin and potential competitors.
The possibility of randomness means your fit is useless as a short-term trading, timing tool.
For long-term valuation prediction, we need to access the adoption.
You made one major correct decision which was to buy BTC below $10. That didn't require any curve fit, it was just obvious to anyone who was paying attention.
I even told you < $10 that you were probably correct, but that I couldn't do any speculation at that time, so it was fairly obvious to me too even I wasn't even studying Bitcoin at that time in 2012 (when you first mentioned it) and early 2013 (when you pounded the table). One of the reasons is I didn't even know how to buy it or hold it and I wasn't in a position to make mores silly process mistakes in my weakened condition (e.g. buying another 1000oz bar from Tulving that arrives with the serial # chiseled off and he refuses to do the right thing). Even you had to lose a ton of $ when you laptop was left unattended, so I was wise not to try to rush in too late and commit the usual learning mistakes.
I think you are placing too much confirmation bias on that curve fit when it appears it is not even responsible for your success. You sold at too low a price if I remember correctly in 2013 and more than one of your trading calls on price have been wrong in 2013 and 2014. So just like anyone trying to trade price, you are correct about 50% of the time.
As far as I know, the successful trades you make are arbitrages often with ladder structure so that you win with high probability. I don't think timing the price has ever been something you excel at. You do excel at buying highly underpriced assets, e.g. silver below $10 along with me.
I seriously don't see Bitcoin as extremely highly undervalued. Looks like about a 10 - 100 bagger from here. Yeah that is a good investment but it depends how long you have to wait. Whereas buying below $10 in 2012/2013 was an exceptionally undervalued purchase.
I have since learned that I don't have any particularly expert skill at trading. My skills are in identifying market trends, demographics, and size, and also in developing products to meet the market needs. I would never (again!) try to do arbitrage trades, or shorting BBR the way animorex recently described. I don't have the correct personality nor sufficient interest in it. I view it as drudgery and it impinges on my creative time which means I end up not being thorough.
Since Bitcoin is not going to take over the world, now I am searching for that incredibly undervalued one that will take over the world. Make sure you buy it cheaper than I do or invest more than I have (which won't be difficult), else I will have bragging rights
You don't need that crutch to convince yourself to continue to hold Bitcoin, as even a log-logistic model would point to 10 bagger from here within a few years at most. But your curve fit could make you overconfident and cause you to miss out on searching for other more undervalued assets.
I've read you say you have a hard time finding anything with as much astronomical upside potential as Bitcoin.
As a reply I accept your post containing a graph how terrible fit the log-logistic model actually is and how mistaken trading signals it would have given in the past.
I am not trading (not a trader). I am trying to access rate of adoption and total end game adoption of Bitcoin and potential competitors.
The possibility of randomness means your fit is useless as a short-term trading, timing tool.
For long-term valuation prediction, we need to access the adoption.
You made one major correct decision which was to buy BTC below $10. That didn't require any curve fit, it was just obvious to anyone who was paying attention.
I even told you < $10 that you were probably correct, but that I couldn't do any speculation at that time, so it was fairly obvious to me too even I wasn't even studying Bitcoin at that time in 2012 (when you first mentioned it) and early 2013 (when you pounded the table). One of the reasons is I didn't even know how to buy it or hold it and I wasn't in a position to make mores silly process mistakes in my weakened condition (e.g. buying another 1000oz bar from Tulving that arrives with the serial # chiseled off and he refuses to do the right thing). Even you had to lose a ton of $ when you laptop was left unattended, so I was wise not to try to rush in too late and commit the usual learning mistakes.
I think you are placing too much confirmation bias on that curve fit when it appears it is not even responsible for your success. You sold at too low a price if I remember correctly in 2013 and more than one of your trading calls on price have been wrong in 2013 and 2014. So just like anyone trying to trade price, you are correct about 50% of the time.
As far as I know, the successful trades you make are arbitrages often with ladder structure so that you win with high probability. I don't think timing the price has ever been something you excel at. You do excel at buying highly underpriced assets, e.g. silver below $10 along with me.
I seriously don't see Bitcoin as extremely highly undervalued. Looks like about a 10 - 100 bagger from here. Yeah that is a good investment but it depends how long you have to wait. Whereas buying below $10 in 2012/2013 was an exceptionally undervalued purchase.
I have since learned that I don't have any particularly expert skill at trading. My skills are in identifying market trends, demographics, and size, and also in developing products to meet the market needs. I would never (again!) try to do arbitrage trades, or shorting BBR the way animorex recently described. I don't have the correct personality nor sufficient interest in it. I view it as drudgery and it impinges on my creative time which means I end up not being thorough.
Since Bitcoin is not going to take over the world, now I am searching for that incredibly undervalued one that will take over the world. Make sure you buy it cheaper than I do or invest more than I have (which won't be difficult), else I will have bragging rights