I posted this before but I think it deserves a re-post. Check mining spec forum for full thread.
Basically it implies bitcoin can be considered over-valued but if difficulty continues to ramp we should hit 1k by January.
When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was
23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was
11.38 days.
Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was
23.45% and
11.41 days.
Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is
21.12% and
11.63 days.
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:
Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost
Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- ------------------ ---------- ------ ---------- -------------- ----------
11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64
23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44
04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12
16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90
28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29
08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11
20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57
02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33
13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62
25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36
05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29
17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14
29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88
09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92
21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46
05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86
16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09
28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26
08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33
20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89
02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13
13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06
25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92
06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91
17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34
29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14
10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95
22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90
03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10
14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18
26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87
07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1