Quote from: nicolaennio on September 09, 2014, 04:28:14 PM

Regarding the probability of mateo raping the bankroll I fear that it may not be "so" low.

The website was using half-kelly and standing to this link http://thehackensack.blogspot.fi/2009/11/half-kelly-bet.html the probability of losing, at some point, a percentage of the bankroll follows a quadratic function. In practice my initial invested amount was 0.11335743 and after all the mess I lost 0.09500235, so 83% of my investment. The probability of this to happen was roughly about 17%^2=2.9%, an acceptable number. (Anyway, it would be great to have a usable model for making these kind of computations, instead of pointing the thumb.)

Regarding the "whale", we can argue that the probability of finding a gambler risking 1 BTC per play is NOT low and also the "timing" argument can hold in reverse: since the bankroll was rapidly diminishing a gambler could have felt compelled to play before seeing it disappear.

I'm sorry, but you're using Dubious math. Kelly Betting is actually the amount the House "bets" which will increase their bankroll the quickest. The Player does not enjoy kelly bets as they are betting in a -EV situation. Kelly Betting is only for +EV (which in the case only pertains the House). Thus the formula you are using to determine the chances of bankroll going to a certain % is not correct. The correct % will be much much lower than 2%.

Quote from: vinboy on September 09, 2014, 06:35:49 PM

I DO agree that this could have been much worse. really.
It is not a perfect scenario like JD (where everyone was happy), but at least only last investors lost their money. sorry for them, i almost lost mine too.

The worst that could have happen is the owner runaway with 7000BTC (remember how mtgox affected so many lives?). That would be much more worse than what has happened.

By the way, is the nonce skipping bug fixed?? i wanna go back and play if it's fixed.

what would be best thing to do now if they want to continue the site is to have multiple people hold the key to the cold wallet.

WOW VINBOY. Do i understand you correctly. You still WANT to play at this shithole? How do you know they've really fixed the issue. Just "Trust" what they say? And basically what you said about the Last Investors getting fucked. You think THATs somehow OK? That only the last guys get fucked?

So you're saying that these guys are a fucking ponzi scam then? Since the last suckers in a ponzi also get scammed too..

In my eyes, thats exactly what Manl/Gerry did.. Nothing better than a ponzi scam.

Edit: Also, stop rationalizing that these guys ONLY fucked people out of a little bit of money, and NOT run away with the 7K. Scamming is scamming, whether for 0.01BTC or for 7K. Just because they didn't take the money and run doesn't mean shit. IT does not mean they're good guys.

For all that I know, they'd rather ONLY scam the last investors, instead of 100% of their investors. Cuz they'd rather only have a few people after their heads, than everyone in the dice community.