Quote from: a1choi on September 10, 2014, 07:38:49 PM

Quote from: Joecker on September 10, 2014, 07:27:04 PM

Quote from: uvwvj on September 10, 2014, 06:56:06 PM

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=301412.msg3247358#msg3247358

Here is Peter Rs analysis - somebody do this.

To pull out that graph for manteol, one needs to know each of his bets...not likely to be available in this eon. Yea we could suppose
all at 49.5%
1k at 7btc
12.5k at 2btc
33k at 1btc etc etc you get the idea... but to put into perspective with my previous analysis... here's what world's luckiest gambler managed to do (Attention: profit/loss is reversed with PeterR's graph) :

To make it clearer, each of the color bands refers to 1SD away from the mean. Notice how 600 profit would be another 2 color bands away? thats 5 SD away from the mean. pretty fucking impossible if you could get any more impossible.. nak, on the other hand, was only a little over 2SD away. not too fucking crazy.

Nakowa also played at full Kelly while Matteo only at half Kelly, so it's much more improbable. As far as I remember Nakowa didn't win 85% of house bankroll like Matteo but it was only around 15%.