Ok, so you did some math. I would be curious to know more.
Are you taking past contracts and calculating how long they took to break even? Are you then taking that data and extrapolating future break-even dates? Are you assuming that difficulty increases will decrease or remain constant? What is the average difficulty increase that you predict over the next 30 weeks? These details would go a long way in helping me understand how you arrived at your opinion.
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Anya, - All good and intelligent questions to ask Netwerked, you deserve an answer. Yes I am doing all that you mention above. I bought contracts each week and each difficulty period and and from these I'm extrapolating future data. Difficulty has never remained constant or dropped in this time period we are considering. Therefore I am adding a substantial difficulty for each two week period. As for what the difficulty will be for the next 30 weeks, its going to be increasing but not the huge jumps like we saw a few times when huge mining farms came on line. We will see the small jumps like we saw a few weeks ago, this next one is also slightly smaller than some we have seen.
I'm trying to have a factual conversation about the likelihood of August contracts breaking even. I respect your opinion that you think August contracts will break even, but you are not supporting it with any facts.
Anya--- I bought two contracts in August. I bought a 500 on Aug. 3, which has now received 5 payments, paid me .394 already. I also bought a 500 on Aug. 19, and in three payments paid me .184. Using this knowlege lets extrapolate together on what this Aug. 19 will do Understand that i can do with with much greater accuracy when a contracted is further progressed into more time. Lets use these numbers and look at this and extrapolate together. .184 in 3 weeks if you got that for 30 weeks would be 1.84 bitcoin
Wouldn't that be nice? I paid 1.35 btc for this contact were using. Lets average 30 weeks, for me to break even I would need to average .135 every three weeks to achieve breakeven in 30 weeks. Can this contract do this over the next 30 week? The difficulty is going to take a huge chunk out of the .184 I got in the first three weeks.
My answer is no, it will take 32 weeks, achieving an average of .131 for each three weeks. Thats just the basics how I do this. And usually I use single weeks of payment to do this work but that August contract of three payments was available.
Glad you like to share thoughts on the math of mining, I started reading this thread in March, Two things I noticed. I was proud of the people I saw posting their graphs and at least trying to work out some math. The other was a lot of post with people saying never going to reach ROI.,saying how your throwing your money away and never going to get it back. I heard a lot of things that didn't add up. Which made a student of math like me, have some fun with it. I stick by my 32 weeks, i hope I'm wrong and is shorter time, and difficulty can't be known so even if its 35 weeks, then you got 225 weeks of rewards.
I miss rodeo clown and hearing paid on Sunday Morning,