Quote from: jl777 on August 30, 2014, 04:56:53 AM

Prediction Markets
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/supernet-in-top-10-of-coinmarketcap/
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/supernet-in-top-5-of-coinmarketcap-before-2016/

Just a short explanation for those of you how are new to Fairlay. Fairlay is a prediction market where user can predict on the outcome of events. The willingness of user to predict on or against an event can result in a pretty good forecast of events, have a look at: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/altcoins/

To make it concrete: if you want to predict on SuperNet click on one of the events. Choose "yes" and fill in a odds. Odds are the multiplier. If you choose 3.5 that means you would get 3.5 your money back (if you are right). If you place 1 BTC and you win you will get back 3.5 (minus 2% fee on the netwinning of 2.5). However, you need to find someone taking the other site of the bet. That is why we have "suggest odds". They result from the current order book of this event. We have a "covert" suggested odd. Under this condition someone else is already willing to offer a bet. If you place a bet with this odds it will be directly matched. If you choose the "open odds" you basically make a new offer. It is basically like buying at market price or placing a buy-offer and waiting for it to be cleared.

You find the full order book under "show additional information". If trading starts a graph will appear as well.
Some might find the "advanced form" easier - there is also a "help me" button that will guide you through the process.

Finally a explanation how we came up with the percentages from the odds. There is a direct conversion possible between the odds and the percentage. Lets say you prediction on the coinflip. The percentage is 50%, 50% thus you want to have 2 times your money back if it should be fair. Thus odds of to convert to 50%/50%. If you bet on a dice roll and bet on 6 your winning chance is 1/6 = 16,66%. You would like to have odds of 6. The formula is 1/odds = percentage. That is the way we calculate the likelihood of an event based on the odds people are willing to predict on it.