Quote from: Mabsark on September 19, 2014, 05:05:47 PM

Quote from: Bonam on September 19, 2014, 03:51:27 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on September 19, 2014, 03:07:02 PM

Now go ahead and change the bitcoin price from sub $400 to $500 and the difficulty increase to 5%. Oh look, Tubes break after after 34 days. Cool!

Good luck with the 5% difficulty increase.

Good luck with pretending that any fixed percentage difficulty increase is realistic. Also, with bitcoin prices so low, small difficulty increases are more likely than large ones.

Edit: The last 10 difficulty increases with oldest first are as follows:

18.10%
12.44%
14.51%
24.93%
3.08%
8.08%
5.30%
20.86%
15.03%
8.75%

The next difficulty increase is looking to be around 9.3% at the moment.

Wisdom's projecting ~18% - is that according to BitcoinCharts? In my experience, Wisdom's been a bit more accurate. I think charts uses a simple moving average while Wisdom uses a first-order expansion or similar based on the 504-moving average