When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.
Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days.
Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days.
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1
Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days.
Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days.
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:
Code:
Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost
Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- ------------------ ---------- ------ ---------- -------------- ----------
11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64
23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44
04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12
16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90
28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29
08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11
20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57
02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33
13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62
25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36
05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29
17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14
29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88
09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92
21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46
05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86
16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09
28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26
08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33
20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89
02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13
13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06
25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92
06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91
17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34
29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14
10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95
22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90
03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10
14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18
26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87
07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14
Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- ------------------ ---------- ------ ---------- -------------- ----------
11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64
23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44
04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12
16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90
28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29
08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11
20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57
02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33
13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62
25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36
05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29
17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14
29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88
09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92
21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46
05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86
16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09
28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26
08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33
20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89
02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13
13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06
25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92
06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91
17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34
29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14
10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95
22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90
03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10
14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18
26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87
07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1
Thanks so much for this.
Yes, something has to give.
If it's the price, some people will come out of the woodwork and say this is proof that "price follows hashrate". I will still disagree.
If the hashrate actually goes down (like in 2011), at least part of the reasoning that "hashrate follows price" is supported (namely: "if price is lower than production cost, miners will switch off their equipment").
If nothing gives (bitcoin price is below production cost) we know: Either at least some miners are economically irrational or we're making wrong assumptions about either the production cost or the price miners are able sell at.
Interesting times ahead
