Quote from: Biodom on September 23, 2014, 09:58:49 PM

Quote from: zimmah on September 22, 2014, 09:38:09 PM

Quote from: Biodom on September 21, 2014, 09:20:42 PM

Quote from: zimmah on September 13, 2014, 06:41:21 PM

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin

do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint.
0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions:
1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin.
2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined.
3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over.

~~Deravatis~~ derivatives and fractional reserve is very bad for bitcoin and it will not and should not happen on a large scale with bitcoin. The philosophy of 'if you don't own the private key, you don't own the bitcoin' needs to stay strong.

Also, they will probably count in satoshies by then. Because 1 bitcoin would be so extremely expensive that it's not practical to count in bitcoin. You might as well count in the number of ferraris you own.

So, rich people will own millions of satoshi, while average people own a couple of thousands or hundred thousands. So there's no problem in only having 21 million full bitcoin, because we can just count in fractions of it.

I don't have as much much grasp of the future as you extoll, but you cannot stop derivatization as soon as you have an ETF (upcoming COIN, BIT). Do you think GLD ETF really have gold (as much as they should-I seriously doubt this).

There are usually checks and balances to ensure this.
If they do not have enough gold, and gold price moves up, they may not be able to give the investors necessary returns.