Quote from: TheFascistMind on October 02, 2014, 04:40:00 AM

Quote from: xulescu on October 02, 2014, 04:24:26 AM

Quote from: TheFascistMind on October 02, 2014, 04:16:08 AM

I believe the math above is incorrect, because each 1 minute trial is independent (which is one of the requirements for a Poisson distribution). Thus we have four consecutive events, two are 4 blocks in a minute and two are 2 blocks in a minute. Thus the probability is as follows.

p = (1⁴ / 4!e¹)² × (1² / 2!e¹)² ≈ 0.000795%, i.e. an occurrence expected roughly every 125,794 minutes which is every 87 days!

If my correction is correct, we do have evidence of something rarely occurring.

^{(edit: fixed quote)}

Man I'm tired of your fucking antics. Do you understand probabilities? Do you understand why your assumptions of independence go out the door? Do you understand that the absolute probability of a complex event is meaningless?

What you're doing is either intentional FUD, delusion or skipping or meds. I had an enormous respect for you when you had the AM handle. Ever since the BCX saga began you've been (publicly) nothing but a reckless agitator, shouting EUREKA for every bullshit possible omen.

I have gap distributions and how these distributions change in time, I have autoregressors trained on the historical clockchain data, I watch 40 notes geographically around the planet and THERE IS NOTHING WRONG.

Now data or GTFO.

Why are you so pissed off? If you have a refutation, then present it. Ad hominem doesn't add information for the readers.

Note you are so emotional, that you didn't even pay attention to what I wrote. I said my correction is to bring it into agreement with the requirements of a Poisson distribution. Note I didn't make any proof that a Poisson distribution applies here. So you are building an ad hominem strawman.

Note what I wrote is misleading because there innumerable other rare events, and when all those probabilities are summed, then the probability of any one of them occurring is much less rare than I stated above.

One objective is to refute the dismissal upthread stating that the above event could occur every hour. Please show me such an event occurring every hour.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on September 27, 2014, 06:36:33 AM

Quote from: nutildah on September 27, 2014, 06:20:01 AM

another 4 blocks in the last minute.

By my math, with 1 block per minute mean rate, one should see 4 blocks in the same minute about once every hour or so. Is this correct?

OK, my apologies for the deviation from discourse standards. Your position therefore is that IF the Poisson distribution is correct AND events of comparable probability happen rarely THEN something is wrong.

I hold that the Poisson distribution is not justified for a number of factors, including variation in hash rate, geographics and clustering (nonuniformity) of block finds. I also hold that you can choose any consecutive 12 gaps and you will get a probability within a factor of 5 from your example's with confidence over 90%.

And again, the burden of proof rests with you. When one argues things did not change and the other argues they have, it is the latter who has to prove the change.