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Board Archival
Re: delete
by
equipoise
on 02/10/2014, 11:38:07 UTC
The probability of observing 4 blocks in a minute when those come from Poisson distribution (the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event - Wikipedia) is P(X=4) = 0.01532 (calculation here: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Poisson+distribution+X%3D4+mean%3D1). This makes it happen about 22 times a day which is once each 65 minutes on average. When the difficulty changes those numbers could slightly vary. We don't have any statistical evidence about something fishy occurring.

Did you miss the entire discussion about permutations of consecutive independent trials?
Yes, I missed it and I don't have time to read it all. It seems you are observing a long random sequence of blocks from a Poisson distribution and AFTER you know the sequence you tell us it's very rear long sequence. What if you calculate the probability from the genesis block to before the BCX exploit using your method? Is the XMR blockchain going to be an impossible sequence, which can't happen in our universe?