Quote from: Tzupy on October 07, 2014, 02:22:20 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on October 07, 2014, 02:14:09 PM

Quote from: mmitech on October 07, 2014, 11:32:25 AM

What I meant is that people who were buying thought that yesterday was a clear sign of reversal, others thought that the 30K wall was a clear attempt of manipulation to buy "cheap" so they bought back fast, others thought it was the last sign before the Cho Cho...

What people seem to ignore or don't understand is that once we reach the bottom, no one will miss buying "cheap", because we will be trading at that level for several weeks before going up.

And you reach that conclusion based on what exactly?

We don't have much precedents to work with, as Bitcoin trading history is only ~4 years old. During that time, 3 major rally/capitulation cycles took place, and we're still in the capitulation part of the of the 3rd one. (There are other ways to parse the trading history, but this one's fairly well accepted.)

I'm mentioning this because any extrapolation from so little data points is of course dubious. Then again, it's the best we have.

So, what do the two completed capitulations look like that we've seen so far:

2013:
bottom 1 = ~$50, the initial post-ATH crash.
bottom 2 = ~$65, about 3 months later.

In between: extreme volatility. Nothing like a flat bottom that allowed you scoop up "cheap coins" at will. Also, 2nd bottom already 30% higher than the first.

2011:
bottom 1 = ~$2, at the end of the almost straight down, multi month correction
bottom 2 = ~$2, about 1 month after the first.

Maybe that's where you get the idea from that you could scoop up cheap coins for weeks before it goes up again. The only problem - even in the 2011 double bottom, there was extreme volatility in between. Price went from $2 to almost $4 (i.e. +100%), before coming down again.

tl;dr There's not much data to work with, given the short trading history of Bitcoin, but from what we have seen so far, a flat capitulation bottom, stretched out over weeks, doesn't seem likely.

After a harsh corrective wave A, the bear market of April - July 2013 traded in a relatively narrow range, not with extreme volatility.

It doesn't have to be flat to trade below major resistance levels, and could take 4 - 5 months, not weeks, to break the 680$.
And that's in the bullish scenario, where we already hit THE bottom. In the bearish one it's going to be scary even for bottom fishers.

That wasn't the point I made. I'll repeat it:

"Scooping up cheap coins for weeks" is neither an accurate description of the 2013 correction, not the 2011 correction.

That's all.

The reason: "cheap coins" is defined in term of the absolute low of the correction. If, after reaching an intermediate bottom, price doubles (which it did, in 2013), I promise you it won't feel like "scooping up cheap coins" at all if it repeats in the future.

Also:

>April - July 2013 traded in a relatively narrow range, not with extreme volatility.

Maybe we have different definitions of volatility, but the closest to "a relatively narrow range" I can see in there is mid-May to mid-June. $260 -> $50 -> $170 most certainly isn't range trading, and going back from $130 to $65 isn't either.