Quote from: mmitech on October 07, 2014, 03:06:02 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on October 07, 2014, 02:53:36 PM

Quote from: mmitech on October 07, 2014, 02:36:21 PM

last year we had a 2-3 months of trading between $90-120, it was then when I decided to invest more, it was clear (or felt) to me that something was developing, I didn't expect 1000 but I was thinking about 400.

We could go from 330 to 430 but then we could fall back to 280 and so on... the average price of that week and the weeks ahead are not that far, by looking at the 1w chart(long term) even when the price is volatile a normal sane investor could catch that bottom average price, but an investor that panic each time could lose everything.

look at the 1w chart, regardless of the pumps and dumps and guys yelling about reversal and whatnot... it is still damn accurate and clear about the last bubble not totally bursting, I sold between 580-630 and I kept holding my fiat (till yesterday I bought at 300 and sold at 318) just by looking to that chart every week, even when there is an action I wait till that week candle close and wait for the next one to see how it will perform, and till now it still showing a bearish market.

1w chart ( from septemebr 2011- October 2014)

I might be wrong, and this market could react totally the contrary of my understanding, but I am willing to give it a try

Alright, I see your point now. What you mean is, there was plenty of time to get in "relatively cheap" before the next bubble started.

I agree with that.

But I hope you understand my point as well: From the perspective of the absolute bottom, that 90-120 USD range was already 2 to 2.5 times higher than the bottom. In that sense, not really the cheapest coins anymore. But, "cheap enough", if you want to get in before the next rally, which is what you mean I suppose.

EDIT: to make it more "graphic", let's assume $280 was in fact the bottom this time (I'm not saying it necessarily is, but that's not the point in this argument). Then we could hover in the $400, $500, $600 range for a while before the next rally, applying the same factor as in 2013.
I don't know about you, but buying in at $500, when I could have bought in at $300, seems okay to me, but not really ideal either.

I understood your point, and BTW only a lucky bastard can catch that "real" bottom, because usually it doesn't hold for long....

I think we are still far from bottom... it wouldn't matter that much for me if I am wrong anyway, because I am not going to invest more than $4200... I will invest it only when there is a real clear reversal and I dont mind missing a 10-30% just to be sure, because waiting for that real bottom and figuring out how many more Bitcoins you could buy for the same money is priceless.

Thousands standing on the side lines waiting for that reversal. And you think you can be the lucky bastard that gets in right on time?