Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 05:51:16 PM

ok, i'm going to have to refine my conspiracy theory on the BearWhale. he is a distraction. i now think the main benefactor of a manufactured selloff was economic actor Pantera Capital.

let me further say, this type of analysis is purely in fun and based on anecdotes. i am not accusing them of anything and will be happy to be corrected. if i'm right, i don't necessarily have anything against them for manipulating the market like i'm theorizing. i just find this one of the more interesting events in Bitcoin history and find it fun to theorize how and why it happened:

developments since the selloff that have occurred after my original theory about it being a non-economic actor:

1. Dan Moorehead @dan_pantera, the day after the selloff, comes out with a detailed series of tweets focusing attention on the movements of address 159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq convincing me that the 30K dumper was indeed a whale who simply capitulated to the selloff pressure:

https://twitter.com/dan_pantera

2. Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin. its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC. they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

associated data and assumptions:

1. @PanteraCapital & @RonGlantz popped up as my Twitter followers since spring/summer and i know they follow this thread. here's the tinfoil stuff and it's truly not meant to feed my ego but since June, i've had the funny feeling that very often when i would put up a bullish post, it was immediately met with a selloff. it got so bad that @kLee1977 told me "you bring bad luck!" to which i replied:

"@kLee1977 actually, u know wht? i bet those ask wall manipulators key off bulltards like me. long term tho, i'd bet on me Wink

"

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/510080984243765248

2. the day of the selloff, Oct 5, i sent this tweet to @PanteraCapital @BitstampUSD @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric:

"hey @PanteraCapital. u guys r invested in @BitstampUSD. y don't u ask @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric whats goin on with the huge wall?"

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/518969201814683648

never got a response from any of them. i would have expected at least a denial.

3. i think since June, Pantera used it's known considerable BTC resources obtained in the early days of Bitcoin, to sell/short down the market with a bot and occasional 1000 BTC chunks, keying off known bulls like myself to knock the market down with the goal of causing a whale or whales to finally capitulate, at which time they'd buy back the sold coins or cover shorted coins back at a cheaper price, at what turned out to be in this case @$300. i doubt they had a specific price point; they were simply hunting for a large selloff source from a weak whale.

4. a large economic actor like Pantera could afford to hire forum and Reddit trolls to help talk down the price. no matter what anyone says, this type of trolling is effective in destroying confidence. it is also well known that when there are big price moves either way ppl come to these meeting places to find out what's going on. the fact that Severro, antibitcoinconsortium, falllling, etc. have all abruptly disappeared since Sunday indicate to me they were on hire by someone with substantial resources to manipulate the market.

5. Pantera Capital is the major investor in Bitstamp and clearly has a close relationship with its founders. only they would have the resources and confidence to leave large amounts of BTC and fiat on an unregulated exchange awaiting opportunities, manufactured or otherwise, considering what happened to mtgox clients.

now it's time for them to talk the price up with bullish reports.

i welcome any thoughts or criticisms.

If this we're the case I would think that 30K wall would have been eaten much faster (by pantera), but as far as I can tell it was chipped away by many "smaller" buyers. I can't help but think pantera would have just panic bought the whole block if all this was the case.