As always, nice work Doog.
I'm not convinced it's right, because it's not clear how to say that part of the bonus pool you expect to get if you win or lose. I think I would prefer to see the calculator ignore the bonus completely, since it's almost a zero sum game.
I agree, I'lll change it to be zero sum for the house (instant crash in 1 in 101 games, as opposed to 1 in 100) and we can really simplify the calculator and calculations.
Yea thanks Doog!
It's definitely not very intuitive for such a simple game looking at the equations. I took a crack for 25k bet amount @ 1.21x after seeing the example calculations and factoring out the bonus. Let me know if you concur Eric/Doog.
b = player bet
m = player multiplier
probCrashing = 0.01 + (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01))
winProb = 1 - probCrashing = 1 - (0.01 + (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)))
expRet = expHouseWinAmount - expHouseLossAmount = (b*((1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)))) - (b*(m-1)*(1/m))
winProb = 0.815
expRet = 36.157