Quote from: espringe on October 14, 2014, 07:45:22 PM

As always, nice work Doog.

Quote from: dooglus on October 14, 2014, 06:54:57 PM

I'm not convinced it's right, because it's not clear how to say that part of the bonus pool you expect to get if you win or lose. I think I would prefer to see the calculator ignore the bonus completely, since it's almost a zero sum game.

I agree, I'lll change it to be zero sum for the house (instant crash in 1 in 101 games, as opposed to 1 in 100) and we can really simplify the calculator and calculations.

The calculator is a bit inconsistent. It doesn't take the bonus into account for 'Profit if win', but it does for 'House Expected Return' and 'House Margin'. One can be more explicit about the potential bonus for the profit. I don't know what a good story for the house numbers are except for assuming 1% bonus, because that's what it basically is from the house's point of view.

Quote from: scottybweyy on October 14, 2014, 11:50:11 PM

Yea thanks Doog!

It's definitely not very intuitive for such a simple game looking at the equations. I took a for 25k bet amount @ 1.21x after seeing the example calculations and factoring out the bonus. Let me know if you concur Eric/Doog.

b = player bet
m = player multiplier
probCrashing = 0.01 + (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01))

Your crash probability is slightly off. It should be 0.01 + 0.99 * (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)) or more explicitly p + (1-p) * (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)) where p is the instant crash probability.

Quote from: scottybweyy on October 14, 2014, 11:50:11 PM

winProb = 1 - probCrashing = 1 - (0.01 + (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)))
expRet = expHouseWinAmount - expHouseLossAmount = (b*((1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)))) - (b*(m-1)*(1/m))

Has to be adjusted with the correct crash probabilit, but then it's fine. But note that the expRet doesn't take bonus into account.