Quote from: Minor Miner on October 16, 2014, 09:19:19 PM

Quote from: Fahlcor on October 16, 2014, 06:54:15 PM

I have never seen a swing that large but he was obviously renting. I was renting at the same time on the same site and seeing their hash rate drop as I increased mine. Depending which rental site they are using it can swing easy if he is being outbid. Some rental sites you rent/hour and others you pay a certain amount and if you are highest you get it. Others can outbid you.

Oo the economics of it I'm up over 200% on my renting in the last few days (2 btc in and 4.2 btc out) so if they are going after the same thing I am then I can understand. It is definitely luck chasing though. If we hit back to back reds then I would be down. But it does only really take 1 block to almost break even. If we hit 2 or more it is all bonus money. it all depends on how much you pay for the rentals.
AS you can also see both them and myself renting have not actually helped hit a block either. At least not the way that I think of blocks anyways. We did work to solve blocks but didn't specifically find one ourselves.
Fahlcor

Interesting. So, it is basically gambling (unless the rental cost is priced lower than the expected value), correct? If it is priced exactly equal to the expected value than it is more a variance gamble? Right?
So, your expected value of buying 24 hours of 1 PH/s would be: 1 (the amount you purchased) / 254 PH/s (the network size) X 3600 (approx bitcoins per 24 hour period) X 0.98 (bitminter keeps some money) = Expected number of BTC returned.
How does the pricing offered compare to the above?

PS. I understand that hashing (and not solving) helps others solve the block, that was not my implication. Everyone doing work helps whether they are the block solver or not.

Well a gamble as to whether or not the pool is going to hit a block in before your shifts pass that you did the work in.

Here is a quick idea of how the math goes.

rent hash as cheap as possible. Current calc for 1 thash is 0.01437/btc/day. So if you can rent it for that then any pool you put it against should break even. But.... If you hit 3 blocks in the time it takes for your shifts to pass then you could make triple. Also if we find a red block then your shifts could go by without being paid.

So on Nicehash if you rented 1 thash for 24 hours @ 0.01437 would cost .0143 btc. And because this pool pays on the work you do if the pools hits 3 blocks you should get ~.04 btc return. Nicehash can be all over the place with speed and other people bidding higher on the site.

On MyRigRental you rent out physical boxes that people ( like me) have listed there for a set price/time. They you point those at Bitminter to work for you. This is alittle bit more controlled as you know you won't have to fight for your hash power but at least you will get quality boxes.

But.... the pool has been very lucky lately. Back to back to back now I heard another (yippie) green blocks would not be considered within the law of averages.

I'm personally going to hold off renting now until I see another red block go by but that is just me.

we will see how lucky I feel later tonight ;-)

Fahlcor