Quote from: odolvlobo on October 24, 2014, 10:57:08 PM

Quote from: resya on October 24, 2014, 10:10:37 PM

Quote from: James222 on October 24, 2014, 07:26:18 PM

I think it does and here's why: If you can make a bitcoin for 1$, why would you buy one for 300$? It does influence the price, but it's not the only factor determining it's price.

Good point, I was kicking around the idea that btc was base pricing itself to the aggregate cost of mining, and now someone else confirms my suspicion..thanks.

Sorry. It is not a good point, because it assumes that the entire demand for bitcoins could be satisfied by mining. In fact, the number of bitcoins obtained by mining would not change, so the number of bitcoins traded on exchanges would not change.

For example, let's suppose that 1000 people want 1 bitcoin each, 100 bitcoins are mined, and the price is 300$. 100 people would get mined bitcoins and 900 people would buy the bitcoins for 300$. Now, suppose the cost of mining bitcoins drops to 1$. Still, 100 people would get mined bitcoins, and 900 people would buy the bitcoins for 300$ each. Nothing has changed.

Furthermore, if it only costs 1$ to mine a bitcoin, then people would start mining like crazy and the difficulty would rise until the cost of mining a bitcoin is about 300$. The price of a bitcoin determines the cost of mining.

the cost of mining wont drop to $1.. so give up on that mindset..

lets say that the cost of mining is about $300-$350 right now (epending on factors). right so
the 3600 sold 7 days ago sold for above $300,
the 3600 sold 6 days ago sold for above $300,
the 3600 sold 5 days ago sold for above $300,
the 3600 sold 4 days ago sold for above $300,
the 3600 sold 3 days ago sold for above $300,
the 3600 sold 2 days ago sold for above $300,
the 3600 sold 1 days ago sold for above $300,

so in the last week there has been atleast 25,000 coins that were sold for atleast $300.. and the buyers of those coins will not sell for less.. so now on the 8th day there is atleast 25000 coins of resistance point (wont sell below $300)

the only people that sell below this are the 'willy' bots and those that bought real cheap last year,.

eventually every sell is swapping funds into the hands of different people. and thus bringing more reinforcement to the resistance point.

that being said.. right now mining costs and mining sells are not really being done via exchanges, meaning that exchanges are left in the hands of the bots and whales.. thus we should not rely on these crappy exchanges as any guideline of supply or demand, as the bank movements do not compare to exchange price changes.

in 2012-20113 there were nice correlations between mining resistance points and exchange prices.. but this year the crappy exchanges are just controlled by devious bots, thus harder to predict.

if we went back to previous years (no withdraw limit) based exchanges, the true bank movement supply and demand would bring back a better and fairer view of the resistance points. but right now most miners are not trading on crappy public exchanges. thus we are seeing weak volumes and very weak resistance points.