Quote from: A-tM on October 25, 2014, 10:20:12 PM

Quote from: Mr. Spread on October 25, 2014, 08:59:41 PM

How often you will find blocks in the future doesn't depend on how often you found them in the past. This misbelief is called gambler's fallacy.

I understand, but every probability function has some "noise" characteristics, and can be described. Extremely long run without blocks should be less probable.
Though, I know this is not pseudorandom, but true random. But still - if you statistically count these runs, the most extreme ones should be the rarest, shoudn't they?

But now I see my length of runs without blocks is not yet extreme, in fact, it seems far from that extreme.

And these extremes should even "widen" with the net hashrate increase. Just my common sense is telling me. Am I right? Sigh.

Thank you for clarification.
I let the older wallet run for comparison anyway. Just for curiosity.

Regards,
Andy

Yep! I've done a lot of solo-mining under a lot of difficulty levels, from being almost all the network to 1% of it. It's those long blocks without and those quick 1-2-3's that tell you that it is truly random. It's kinda funny how randomness is generally misunderstood. I had four blocks in 40 minutes yesterday, followed by a void of two hours, followed by another of two hours.