Quote from: rjk on May 31, 2012, 09:10:32 PM

Quote from: PatrickHarnett on May 31, 2012, 09:04:04 PM

(and while starfish are often idiots, this one expects some sort of disruption to the economy when BS&T finally closes it's doors)

Is that actually in the cards, or do you not think it can last long either?

I don't know.

My approach for a long time has been to diversify my portfolio (a point Colbee seems to think is a stupid approach in another thread), so I have lots of different investments (active and passive) around bitcoin-land. Current BS&T exposure is 20%.

One of the things I do look at what is going on, and trying to sift the envy-crap out of different threads, track the evolution of the economy and how it relates to real world processes. What has been great (from an economics point of view) is how the bitcoin-land economy has developed so rapidly, and you can watch the whole thing unfold in fast-forward. An incorrect (that's my disclaimer) assessment is:

pre-2011 - early adopters do some cool stuff
early 2011 - trading starts to gain traction
June 2011 - trading bubble (and yes some sold a lot at $30+
2nd half 2011 - time of trading - great arbitrage opportunities, high volatility, good pickings on exchanges.
Q1 2012 - rise of lending/lending scams - decent returns but high risks, exchange rates become more stable
Q2 2012 - rise of the stock/bond exchange. Lending calms down, price flat, speculative GLBSE bubbles.

2nd half 2012 - my personal expectation is for a few less well funded people to default of various projects, interest rates will come down, stock/bond issues will be more stable. Price might drift along as people work out how to use BTC properly and speculative trading will be for the hard core.

Note that the money is at the higher risk, leading edge, and more stable returns in the wake.

and the 64000BTC question - will Pirate default and we find out he has been running a ponzi? On the balance of probabilities, I'd say "no". I bet my BS&T account on it (and I do every day). I do, however, think it will evolve over the next six months, and that it will ultimately wind up.