Quote from: mr_random on October 27, 2014, 11:00:09 PM

Quote from: synechist on October 27, 2014, 09:01:42 PM

Quote from: Come-In-Behind on October 27, 2014, 08:50:35 PM

Quote from: mr_random on October 27, 2014, 08:32:49 PM

I've been analysing the investment potential of this project and detail my methodology below. Essentially these tokens derive their value from the micro fees they receive. As the OP explains these aren't coins - "is not a coin but a token of value the blocknet adds to every service it enables."

Let's assume you have 1 BTC worth of these tokens out of the 2500 BTC worth of tokens out there. Typically for an ordinary investment, 10% return would be amazing for a year. In crypto where things are very high risk and volatile, people would expect more like a 100% return in a year.

So 1 BTC should give 1 BTC in terms of "paid feeds" over the course of a year. Which means 2500 BTC worth of paid fees across the network. I don't believe the fee structure has been made public or is even known? The term micro fee suggests it will be small. I'm speculating a complete guess at 0.5%. But fees don't just go to the token holders they also go to the node which renders the service, so if that is split 50-50, the amount going to the token holders would be half that. But let's assume it's 0.5%.

For 2500 BTC worth of fees to have been paid, that means 2500 BTC represents 0.5% of all the transactions that have occurred - giving a total figure of 500,000 BTC.

That is right. According to my rough calculations, the network needs to be handling 500,000 BTC worth of volume per year for 1 BTC worth of these tokens to generate 100% return in terms of fees paid. That to me seems unlikely to be happening early on in the life of the Blocknet.

Any thoughts/discussion on my post?

Think of how many coins will be added to the Blocknet. Basically I see it as the more coins added to blocknet(which is what blocknet is about?), the easier it will be to get that 500k btc worth of volume in a year.

Thanks Mr_Random.

I don't have much to add, but here's a point or two:

Blocknet tokens will still be tradable and speculators and investors can gain or lose based on their market value.

Short-term gains (i.e. before the Blocknet launches or grows large) will be purely on the basis of tokens' value.

As the Blocknet grows, fees will become an increasingly lucrative revenue source.

Fees: service providers are free to set any fee they want for a service, and nodes that provide the service keep the fee.
In addition, service providers pay Blocknet fees, and it is this that is paid to shareholders.
This will be a microfee, but its value has not yet been set, due to the fact that we're not yet sure how many instances of Blocknet-fee-charging are likely to occur across a broad range of services. The idea is that a fee will be charged for a given function that the XBridge performs; certain services might require very small or very large numbers of functions, and we will first need to be able to model this before we can create fee structures that track both the cost to the Blocknet of delivering the service and the value of the service to clients.

Interesting comments; they've been noted. Will the ultimate goal be to make the fee structure decentralised? For example if someone makes a change to the Bitcoin code, miners can choose which fork to be on. How would that work with Blocknet if there are two competing sets of fee structures proposed to the nodes. I guess I'm trying to establish if the fee structure can ultimately be built into the system or will the decision of the fees be centralised.

I'm also wondering whether going open source is a good idea or not. If a clone platform comes out where fees are half the price, won't ordinary everyday users who want things like cloud storage just go with the cheapest option? This isn't like Bitcoin, since the value of this platform is derived from the services not from a currency... I therefore anticipate clones to be more damaging than ordinary coin clones.

If I can probe further, what timeline is the Blocknet development projected to follow? At what stage in the next 12 months can investors expect to see the technology working? What is the projected estimate for completion of the decentralised exchange?

Hmm... forks for lower fees? Interesting scenario!

This would happen if participating coins saw greater value in implementing an alternative version of the XBridge into their wallets.
Or if non-participating coins wanted their own Blocknet, didn't like the fees, and colluded to create a fork.

Against the possibility of participating coins doing this, they could instead just use their seats on the Foundation's board to discuss and propose changes. Also, what if their community protested at losing service X due to changing forks? The coin itself could fork.

As for non-participating coins creating their own forks, there are of course additional reasons to do so, like being excluded from the Blocknet. This might happen, but it would be at the expense not having access to whatever valuable services are in the Blocknet. I suppose that the major force in operation here is market centralisation (Hotelling's law); being in the Blocknet is a whole lot better than being out of it, and so, like having a shop in a shopping mall vs. having one outside of it, service providers will flock to the Blocknet.

P.S. We'll be releasing a timeline very soon.