Gut feeling is that there's going to be a big movement upward in the next few days. I don't expect it to drop much lower from these levels.
I agree with you, except also, that I was thinking the same thing when it was bumping along at $390
Even if a small pump happens, then what? Miners, merchants and bitcoiners giving up (or cashing out at their breakeven point) will lead to more slow bleeding until market sentiment changes. And sentiments don't change from one day to another, it needs time for consolidation which we still didn't have (or a miracle).
...and yet difficulty is up and the number of transactions is at its highest.
Higher difficulty means less profit for miners, so they need to dump more percentage of their daily mining income to pay bills.... That's something bad for bitcoin price (and only good for security).
Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".
And I'm also convinced it is growing faster because people are sending more bitcoins to exchanges and expending them, adding more selling pressure.
I think bitcoin will have a shiny future, but it will need time to develop, maybe 6, 12 or 18 months. It is not magically goin to rally like lot of people think here.