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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 03, 2014, 07:12:19 PM

Quote from: seriouscoin on November 03, 2014, 05:18:10 PM

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Quote from: seriouscoin on November 02, 2014, 08:39:06 PM

Quote from: taipo on November 02, 2014, 08:04:39 PM

When the difficulty hits 50B at current tech & current avg watts, big players will start thinking about calling a world-wide truce. Hashrate will top out somewhere after 400PH and well before 700PH unless someone invents a quantum miner.....

Next gen ASIC is claimed to be 0.2w/GHs (SP). 700PH is entirely possible. To to mention i know some mega miners are expanding with 3 cents per KWh contract. They will keep expanding to get a bigger pie. Only idiots like OP keep using "bitcoin calculator" with wrong variable.

yeah thats right and when btc drops to 200 usd they go fully red and belly up.

I never said they won't expand I just say they will expand very slowly. The 10 % you see is the exception under 5 or 6 will be more common.

Sadly i think home miners will hurt worse then most big mining operations. I have winter that will help. Decent priced electric, with quite a bit open to expand still.

I agree it was unusual, but the previous 2 were very low. I think we will find a common ground between theGue 2's and 10's. What that is depends on how many operation go online. Guess we will find out in a week or so and have a good idea.

When the price declines far enough, the big mining operations will be the first to slow down/stop their expansion. I would say that at-home miners likely have higher electric costs then the big mining farms, however they also are less aware of the breakeven price that bitcoin needs to trade at in order for it to be worth it for them to continue to mine. As a result, the corporate miners will likely start to take their miners offline (and attempt to liquidate) their miners as the price of bitcoin approaches their breakeven point

Dumbest shit i've heard

You talk like the difference in electrical rate is marginal.

Home miners pay avg at $.10/KWh

Mega farms pay avg at $.5/kKWh.

Good luck with your wishing noob

yes but they pay to set the gear up wire the place cool the place.

coins dropped from 1150 to 310 even lower 289 a few weeks ago. we all know they (data centers) have a big edge. but 300-330 usd a coin is close to an edge/cliff for them that I don't face if I double my capacity.

If I go from 6 to 12 s-3's my cost for setup is $0 above my price for the s-3's

if a big farm goes from 1 to 2 ph yeah they get a good price on the s-3 better then me but they have to do setup and 1ph in s-3's = 2000 s-3's or 700 asic miner long tubes .

I have psu's paid for on hand they don't.

All easy for them to do these outlays when coins are 500 usd at 320 usd not easy. the coins drop to 200 from 320 and they die. me I am out 6 x 200 = 1200 bucks.

oh big farms don't pay .5 a kwatt they pay .04-.06 a kwatt.

but that is just the power not the wires the psu's the rent the cooling the salaries.

So I know where you are coining from. it is hard for the little guy to compete.

BTW you are amazing when it comes to the insults and rudeness you display from thread to thread. Have to hand it to you.

I'm in same boat as you. I can expand with current electrical. Even have a building or two left.... I finnaly ran out of my stash of PSU's so I would have to buy those. And it' winter so I can use air outside for free / super cheap cooling. And cameras and security is already set up.

Miner cost for them is at a discount (most companies at least). They save on shipping as they go by pallet. Some even can drive truck loads from manufacture to data center (look at china).

Each has it's pros and cons. I think the big data center has biggest advantage (and they have huge capital in most cases). I do not think home mining is dead though. For the lucky its alive. Now those who pay vat and huge electricity I would agree they are dead, unless hosting somewhere.

You also forgot one thing. Not all home miners register their mining business. I would argue most of them are still considering mining "hobby". Thus they're not able to claim any loss. Guess who would be able to stand the storm?

Fact: home miner will drop out due to MUCH higher electrical rate and sustainability of negative cash flow.

Big miners can sustain the negative cash flow and claim loss to their fical yr taxation.

well look miners that did not register the business and scored in the bull runs of april 2013 and nov 2013 may have saved thousands in taxes. They may hang in a long time at a loss if they are not high scale.

A USA home like mine can do 6k-watts with no issues.

I have gas heat for every 1k of mining I drop my heating bill 20 usd. At 10 cents a kwatt I spend 72 usd in electrical power. take the 20 bucks off in my gas bill I spend 52 usd per k-watt-month .

A new data center spending 5 cents a kwatt uses 36 usd per k-watt month.

So it looks like they have a 16 usd a month edge per k-watt. Now remember my whole point is don't grow much. You point is the should grow due to the power edge and price for the gear edge.

My cost for the building = 0
They are expanding so they need to rent more space build more space lease more space.

My cost for psu's = 0 I have enough to run 6kwatts

They need psu's say 2k surplus hp servers cost to set up 1 to run 4 s-3's = 100 usd

They need 24/7 guards/workers. say 1 per 8 hours now becomes 2 per 8 hours.

They can't beat a small guy as easy as you think.
They run a crazy big risk coins drop from 320 to 200

So my 7 s-3 miner 2800 watt 3.5 th farm doubles to 14 s-3's 5600 watt 7.th cost 7 x 200= 1400 usd . not much risk for 2x my hash.

The data center builder gets 1ph to 2ph. he is usa based. buys 500 s-4's pays cheap 500,000

1000 each shipped. he actually paid 50 cents a gh. my ebay price of 200 an s-3 is 40 cents a gh.

So to make it better use asicminer's long tube.

lets give the guy a deal 320,000 usd for 1 ph or 32 cents a gh. he needs 700 units to do 1ph so 700 server psu's 50 bucks each = 35000 he is now at 355,000 for 1 ph or 35.5 cents vs my 40 cents.

he need workers, he needs a good internet setup .

so to start his new 1ph mining he pays 50 cents vs my 40 cents a gh.
he then gains on his 5 cents vs my 10 cents for power.

this is my point large expansion is very hard for him. his startup costs are higher then mine . and he faces destruction if coins drop to 200 usd.

If I was wrong the slow growth would have never happened over the last 150 days

But you can write how they will expand if you want to.
BTW just because my way is economically correct does not mean people will follow or believe it.

Keep dreaming.

All of this becomes irrelevant when Bitfury (and whoever else) brings their .2w/GHs miners online and doesn't make them available for purchase by the general public.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140915005202/en/BitFury-Announces-Technology-Roadmap-Sustained-Industry-Leadership#.VFlR72K9KSO

too many quotes on this post but I see a real problem with that article.

Why build .2w miners if you can do .1 watt miners looks to me that they would suffer a crushing blow if the day the .2 watt miners are put online coins shrink to

150usd.

Seems to me if they can make .2 in jan or feb

then make .1 in july they are double spending their research money and doing it into a really tight market. BTW that article is almost 2 months old.

My guess is .2 watts comes in Apr-May and .1 in 2017 if the game is not dead.

also deep in the article they mention 2x every 6-12 months my guess is 12 months not 6 months.

All this is based on btc prices at 300-350 usd. I am certain they would go faster if btc prices were 1000.