Quote from: CoinCube on November 05, 2014, 01:32:11 AM

Quote from: UnunoctiumTesticles on November 04, 2014, 08:30:55 PM

You will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.

Be careful about calling things too early. Personally I don't think things will collapse by 2016 it is just too soon for collapse.
There is plenty more "dry power" QE to be thrown at the world economy.Confidence in central banks is not yet broken and I doubt it will be by 2016.

I am surprised that you as an INTJ would posit such without any factual basis at all. It would have been more logical for you to say you don't have any data but your gut feeling is such.

Any way, real analysis of the data on QE should shock the fuck out of you. Make sure you click that link.

Quote from: CoinCube on November 05, 2014, 01:32:11 AM

I think you posted this picture up thread somewhere or I saw it after following one of your links. I am remain skeptical of Armstrong being a big skeptic of prophets in general. Nevertheless, the time frame here 2033 seems more realistic to me.

I can see the populace starting to lose faith after the next 19 years are filled with a full generation of QE. However, if the economy takes a dive in 2016 I think we will just see QE 5 and kick the can a little farther down the road.

Armstrong is not a prophet. He is a scientist who created a model based on back testing all data since Mesopotamia and forward testing astoundingly precise correct predictions of the model since the 1980s. You really better click that link and review the facts on his models performance record. I dont understand why any scientist would assert Armstrong is not applying the scientific method. The computer discovered the cyclical pattern from the historical data, not some numerology invented on a whim.

The image you displayed above is for the global turn from a Private to Public wave.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/

Please understand that the model is out-of-phase for different sectors.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/11/will-the-usa-also-break-up-into-regions/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/26/224-collapsing-wave-structure-point-to-breakup-of-usa/

The Private wave will continue until 2032 and private assets will not likely peak in price until then:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/28/cycle-inversion-staging-ground-for-2032/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/16/commodity-prices-into-2032/

Along the way of moving from Public assets (e.g. sovereign bonds) to the 2032 peak in the move to Private assets (e.g. gold, cryptocurrencies, off the grid real estate, Corporate bonds, stocks), there will come a point where the confidence in sovereign bonds breaks and the stampede into Private assets will accelerate.

Note how the move into Private assets really accelerated with the dot.com bubble, then the commodity and gold bubbles (which peaked temporarily in 2011 due to QE which was predicted by the ECM model as you see it turned back up from 2011 to 2015.75). So QE was able to kick the can down the road and keep the sovereign debt alive a little bit longer, but as I showed on the prior page of this thread, this was at the cost of driving global total debt-to-GDP north of 313%.

Thus 2015.75 is the ETA in the model for the next downwave of the sovereign debt contagion as it continues to succumb to the rising Private wave. And this next contagion in 2016 is going to be an order-of-magnitude worse than 2008 and it will also be qualitatively different. See the first link in this post for the detailed analysis on that.

Note that means Private assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies won't move up again until after 2015.75. Note the stock market had been correlated with Public assets, but it may now be undergoing a likely phase transition and if so it will shift to align as a Private asset and continue to move up after 2015.75.

Btw, the ephemeral resurgence of the Public sector from 2020 to 2024 (before the final phase transition to the blowoff peak in the Private wave) should scare the fuck out of you, because that will be the governments lashing out with war.

I hope you also noticed his model predicts a global pandemic in full swing by 2019:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/31/ebola-virus-the-next-plague-due-2019/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/01/the-first-ebola-case-appears-in-the-us/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/03/will-the-demise-be-plague-or-economics/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/04/ebola-the-next-plaguepandemic/

Again I reiterate, you will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.