Quote from: klondike_bar on December 04, 2014, 11:40:49 AM

Quote from: TheRealSteve on December 04, 2014, 11:14:59 AM

Quote from: raskul on December 04, 2014, 10:13:48 AM

Quote from: Biffa on December 04, 2014, 09:35:52 AM

Quote from: raskul on December 04, 2014, 07:15:14 AM

stuff

How does it compare to the UK National Lottery odds?

Code:

Category Prizes Chances Prize (Aprox)
Jackpot 1 1 in 13,983,816 £3-5,000,000
5+bonus 6 1 in 2,330,636 £50,000
5-match 252 1 in 55,491.33 £1,500
4-match 13,545 1 in 1,032.40 £100
3-match 246,820 1 in 56.66 £25

The odds for the Dice are claimed to be 150/300,000,000, which isn't too far off, so let's run with that, and simplify it to there being a 1:2,000,000 chance that you would solve a block and get BTC25, currently worth about BTC25 * £240/BTC = £6,000 . Rather unlikely, and you're out the £108.
Just on the face of it, 1:56.66 / 1:2,000,000 ~= 35,300 times a better deal to play the lotto to win something.

On the other hand, that something is much greater for the Bitcoin lottery, and factoring that into the odds by plugging one into the other (£6,000 / £25 = 240), multiplying with the odds (1:2,000,000 * 240 = 1:8,3333), and then dividing (1:56.66 / 1:8,333), you'd find that playing the lotto is 'only' 147 times a better deal than playing the Bitcoin lottery with a Dice to win something.

But that's messing with numbers that shouldn't be messed with as it's not a direct comparison. Let's instead compare that to the closest equivalent for the lotto - getting a 5-match four times (for prize money of £6,000);
Winning it once: 1:55,491.33
Winning it four times: 1:221,965.32
1:221,965.32 / 1:2,000,000 ~= 9 times better to play the lotto if the goal is to win £6,000.

honestly - calling solo bitcoin mining a 'lottery' is a bit silly. If you actually wanted to win, you would solo mine with the larger, more cost-effective hardware. You can have 11x the hashrate for about 7x the cost if you buy an SP20. the solo-mining lottery is really a way to sell overpriced, underpowered hardware to those who dont know better, or want a small collectible piece.

-granted, if its your first time mining bitcoin, its probably a decent device for that. cheap and power efficient. however, any new miner who goes solo will surely be dissapointed greatly 6 months later when they have nothing, and realise they should have been on a pool from the start so that they would have at least made a fraction of a bitcoin, maybe enough to pay for the electricity used in that time period (probably $60-80 worth)

Buy 2 devices, mine solo with the first, mine against a pool with the second.
Not everything is about ROI ...