Quote from: smooth on December 15, 2014, 01:25:21 AM

Quote from: cypherdoc on December 15, 2014, 12:36:22 AM

Quote from: BldSwtTrs on December 14, 2014, 10:42:57 PM

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph. considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.

The thing I don't like about the graph is the shape of it, where the true growth never reaches the hype. Sure that happens, but there are many technologies that go through a hype phase and a bust, but then the real growth on the right side eventually eclipses the original hype.

It is possible that Bitcoin is doing that (with the peak in late 2013/early 2014) and will indeed, eventually grow to something on the scale of trillions far exceeding the previous peak, but somewhat more slowly.

Also, I don't believe it is really possible to position/rank/value technologies on the left side of the peak. You only know the peak in hindsight.

yeah, you're right in that i don't think its a good graph either as applied to Bitcoin.

we're talking about a new money here. one built for the internet. there's a reason alot of us think the result will be binary; either zero or to the moon. it's b/c the real problems of the day are due to CB printing to the tune of $trillions. Bitcoin is a measly $5B. the network effects of money are enormous and IF Bitcoin becomes a global currency who really knows just how high we can go?

and we really are a mere 5 yrs in. when i bought in i mentally told myself i would give it to 2020 to make a final decision on Bitcoin esp if it hadn't failed by then. that's still 6 whole years away.