Quote from: RyanPumper on December 20, 2014, 06:25:22 PM

Quote from: nembot on December 20, 2014, 06:12:32 PM

Hi Ryan - thanks for all the free tips - make good reading. Made about .3 BTC on ESC (only! from about 0.05 that I had lying around) after your tip-off last time & was kicking myself for not liquidating my other couple of positions and betting the (tiny) farm.

Also been reading the diversification/all-in argument & think I agree. Like in poker as a small guy you can just get "eaten up by the blinds", even the transaction fees don't make sense if you're trading .1 BTC several times a day - not to mention your time.

So next time ESC is back down under 10% of what it is now - I'll be doing my very best to load in whatever cash I have.

Sounds good bro, markets like ESC are very easy to predict and profit from... What I will say is, always look to see that others are accumulating before putting your position on. That way, you protect yourself from buying into "dead coins" or coins that are on the verge of dying.

Quote from: nembot on December 20, 2014, 06:12:32 PM

For now after deciding "all-in" is the way to go, I'm almost all in on NakomotoDark with about 0.6 BTC below 100 satoshi ha ha. Not a tested one with three or four previous peaks to reassure me - but then a lot of the pumps seem to be on new "Dark" coins still (was also in in a small way on DarkShibe & DarkSwift - cashed some of that out to buy a drum machine - nice!)

If it hits front page on Bittrex hopefully might lift off for some redistribution - we'll see....

I tend not to buy into brand new coins at all, so I can't advise on that.

My strategy is heavily based on historical data, which I use to expose the habitual movements of whichever coin I'm trading. It will be impossible for me to do that with a brand new coin

that doesn't mean you can't make money on the coin you mentioned, it just makes it more of a gamble than a sure thing

Thanks Ryan

Once again this makes total sense - so with this advice ringing in my ears & the dubious new coin I bought into already dropping in value, I cut my losses, sold out and spent some serious time going through all the charts. Also sold all my other 0.1 BTC holdings that even if they went x300% were not going to make me rich... & made up a little "all-in" war chest of just over 1 BTC. The question which was really getting to me was - how do I know which one of these coins is DEFINITELY going to have another rally? It has to be definite if I'm putting everything on (I can afford to lose it sure, but my wife's not gonna let me sink another $300 into trading if I'm losing!!! so I'm risking my "fun tokens" ha ha). Litecoin or Dark are BTC trading partners, but I'm not sure which way they will go next, and all the other ones I found with nice patterns seemed to be (maybe) at the top currently (e.g. ESC) or looking good but unclear when/whether would lift off again (e.g. START,LTCD).

Eventually I realised that there is a coin which I'm dead sure has to rise again - CANN. How can it not? It's here for the long haul, has good real-world traction and a virtual certainty of news events. Once I realised how sure this is, I mentally tipped my hat in agreement with Ryan and the other experienced traders - 110% predictable in some markets seems more than fair.

Now all I have to do is deal with the market's two determinants (fear and greed) WITHIN me!.... how high shall I set my spread of sells? But the uncertainty of wondering if I picked the right coin is gone, and so will be the constant pulling funds in and out of crappy coins, losing money every time. I'll just enjoy Christmas even if my CANN falls to half the value... at the very least the next twitterstorm will bring it back up to level. More likely, I'll cream off some profit when it hits my sells - unless I've been too greedy.

So for all the noobs reading this column for advice on how to invest a very small stack, (that's what I've been doing for a couple of months) I'm taking Ryan's & other posters' advice - NOT diversifying, but picking a good quality coin that I have very good reason to expect to rise again (have to be sure) but is relatively cheap & out of the public eye at the moment but that people are still throwing money into, & buying in at wholesale prices. There's no repeating pattern to work from with this coin but reading the CANN thread I'm (like totally) sure there'll be newsworthy publicity "events". Then we'll get the perfect storm of twitter, crypto news articles, volume, front page of Bittrex & fresh money flowing in in panic buying &...... if you agree with me.... (do your own research!) we'll have our coins already in hand to redistribute to those who used to be like us!

So - that's my thinking. And yes before anyone says - of course I'm a bagholder...since about 30mins ago I am! But the amount of BTC that went in & out of that coin a couple of months ago had nothing to do with feeble attempts to talk up coins on forums, of that I'm sure - so that's got nothing to do with it. I'd just like to share my thoughts with others long & short in the tooth & see what people think of my reasoning...

In particular, I wonder if with so many bag holders now, the next CANN rally may be much more subdued & struggle to reach 100-200% rather than the dizzy heights of the first one. I set my sells at about 500% when I had a bit of ESC & could have made about 2.5 times what I did! so I don't want to sell out at 50-150% & miss a 1000% moonshot - but neither do I want to set sells of several hundred percent & miss out on doubling up my lone bitcoin. I know- set a few orders at different levels (I have) - just wondering what people think about the next rally (likely to coincide with next news event maybe in January)...

TL;DR ...I don't know what I'm doing, but based on stuff I've read here & my child-like reasoning, I've sunk everything spare into CANN & gonna hodl till next rally which I've convinced myself is a 100% sure thing! woop woop!

Cheers

jk

If that helped anyone or if anyone's fed up of being rich: 1JeABtkQrUXgDJ2eoPitNuVLsq3jps8F7k Wink