Quote from: RyanPumper on December 21, 2014, 02:18:10 AM

Quote from: mmmaybe on December 21, 2014, 01:48:34 AM

Why don't you write something closer to truth: "to a high degree" or something similar?

Reading this, puts me under the impression that you're not a regular reader of the thread.

Is the market 100% predictable? Yes, indeed. This market is 100% inefficient and can be played backwards and forward so easily that it isn't even funny.

Is the market 100% predictable? As sure as I am that the sky is blue, I am certain that price moves can be predetermined before they actually occur - and in a very straight forward, non-complicated manner too.

Take the term "100% predictable" for what it is. Just by assessing 4 specific factors, you can determine whether or not it is the right time to buy, whether or not a coin has long-term viability, and you can very quickly gauge the most accurate buying in range to produce the broadest scale of profit possible.

Is the market 100% predictable? If it wasn't, I wouldn't trade. Simply because if I can't guarantee a win, then executing a buy would be gambling - not trading.

You see there are thousands of participants in this market. And most of them are gamblers - so they approach the market in much the same way a gambling addict approaches the roulette table. The addict knows that "there are no guarantees" when he puts $1000 on number 12. Professionals of BlackJack know that "there are no guarantees". Even those no hopers who sit down in front of slot machines all day understand that "there are no guarantees". Why is this? Because gambling in itself is a rigged sport, where the odds are always tilted in favor of the house.

Trading isn't anything like gambling. (Good trading that is) Simply because, there are certain tools and indicators available to each and every trader - that aren't present in the casinos. Trading is not gambling, gambling isn't trading.

You see as a trader, your role is to buy at $X and sell at $XX. Not to roll the dice and hope to see your number. Trading isn't a game of chance, it's a game of skill

Trading, is 110% predictable

Thanks for your extensive and serious answer! I hope that you believe me when I say that think you're good at what you do. I can't call me a regular reader of the thread, but once a week I'll check it out.

Despite that, your post is serious faulty on two accounts (but it's 4am here and can just comment one):

You can never claim former success as proof on future gains. Why? You have a finite amount of examples in trading, and seems to believe their success are proof of future success, when the future holds an infinity of examples not yet occurred; it's is the latter that will prove you wrong. Your kind of argument was debunked many decades ago. What we might talk about instead is probability. When coming to that concept you right away are discussing sub-100% certainty.

You actually write something interesting in that very context: "Is the market 100% predictable? As sure as I am that the sky is blue, I am certain that price moves can be predetermined before they actually occur". Please understand that I read this in a theoretical way but with mundane examples: Do you live in an area where the sky always is blue? Well, even if you would have 365 blue skies (even at night), you will now and then have a solar eclipse making that sky black.

Further, I asked you for a few well-respected references supporting you claim. You have offered none.

Lastly, you have now upped your claim to 110%. So why not take the challenge where you predict the price of 50 or 100 cryptos I chose? This is not an example of the theory argument of (in)finitism and probability above. This is here and now, this is your turf - why not take it?

Is it a matter of lost earnings for you, we can put same money on the table. You can chose the amount and I'll accept it.

If I were you, however, I would never make that deal. I'm sure you understand why. Even short term, probability isn't 100%.

I have to sleep now.

Regards