Not all of the remaining probability is concentrated in the scam possibility. I put around 20 that it's completely real, 30 that it's outright scam and will collapse less than a month, 10 that it is outright scam but will take up to six months, 30 that it is real but will have people selling heavily to put down the price temporarily, but will then recover, and the remaining 10 on everything else. (These are quick estimates, likely to be close to my actual credences.)

If you call anyone who defends it a shill, I think you should have at least a 90% credence concentrated in the "it's a deliberate scam". I have around a 40% credence in that. There's no real way to bet on that directly, so we have to use price or something similiar, which makes the probabilities shift. If you have a way to capture the "deliberate scam" event in a well defined way that people won't argue over afterwards, share it and I'll see.

What are your own credences for each of the major outcomes? If you prefer to deal with price then give for the following ranges: 0-5,5-10,10-15,15-19,19-25,25+ for a Feb 1st outcome. If you want you can also give for a later date. Then we can see differences of opinion and agree on a bet.