Quote from: Barabbas0 on December 29, 2014, 10:07:04 AM

Please, investors are running from Japan to US. They are incomparable.

Investors are buying the Nikkei, and selling Yen. It's hardly running from Japan to US. Anyhow, you seem to take my prediction that the dollar will end in hyperinflation as implying that the dollar should be losing value relative to other currencies. That is non sequitur.

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Do you know what a yield curve is?

I spent a few months implementing various models of the yield curve (or surface), so I have a pretty good idea. Predictively modelling the yield curve would be extremely leveragable, so I invested quite a bit of time into it, until I ran into a brick wall trying to solve a boundary value problem in Hilbert space. I might return to it later if I have more time for basic research.

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If you did, you would know that all that doom and gloom you're spreading is not evident at all.

I don't perceive anything gloomy about it. Doom just means final fate. Yes, I perceive the doom of the USD as coming 1 day closer with each passing day. If you do not, then your perception of time is, shall we say, idiosyncratic, or your vision simply does not extend as far into the future. I suppose that any outcome or event seems gloomy to those who are unprepared for it. To those who see their plans bear fruit, the outcome is tasty and sweet -- or at least is not an unbuffered shock.

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We're fighting deflation, not hyperinflation. No one's "rolling out" of USD, they're flocking to it.

The first is true, the second is absolutely false. Some very large holders of USD debt are gradually liquidating already and have been doing so for quite some time. QE was a god-send for them as it was a huge opportunity to exit without slippage.

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Also, Treasury "debt" does not work like corporate or individual debt. It works more like company shares than anything else. That is, when a country's doing good (exporting) it's currency rises in price. That's what's happening to USD. It's getting bought up and the price is skyrocketing.

The monthly balance of trade has declined from -35bn USD one year ago, to -43bn USD at last report. Meanwhile, DXY went from 80 to 90. Methinks your explanation is lacking in evidence. Methinks the facts are actually supportive of my view, that Japan has left the domain of perceived sovereign risklessness, for the same reasons that the U.S. will one day step outside that pale.

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I'm out of this thread. There's no logic or intelligence here. Just an anti-USD, pseudo-economist, pro gold and BTC, circlejerk.

I am bearish gold on a short time frame, bearish on a medium time frame, and bullish on a long time frame. I doubt you understand what I think. I am long USDJPY, for example. That does not mean that it is any less obvious to me that USD will not eventually face the same terminal decline as JPY. It just means not yet.

Kicking the can down the road works until you run out of road. A long-term prediction can be perfectly right in the long-term, while being completely wrong in every intervening time period. I am pretty sure we have at least another 6-9 months of blind faith in central planning being the dominating force in financial markets globally.

Your challenging remarks are appreciated. Your juvenile remarks are not. I'm torn as to whether it is good or bad that you should run away.