The stats, in and of themselves, are real. It's just that the site owner is running most/all accounts himself. Here's a backup of the data I got for the week before 5 march 2021 (about 20mb): https://01010100.net/bustabit/bitcrasha.com.zip It includes snapshots of the stats page every few hours, as well as the games played during that time, which should allow anyone to verify my results above should the site owner decide to fake his previous games now or something.


It is quite hilarious watching the OP frantically trying to "patch" things as they got brought up, first the shiba bot, then the players' strategies, now probably the previous games. Sure, it cost me 1k bits (about $50) but it got me value already the same way as paying for a ticket to a stand-up comedy show.

Maybe one or two are real, the rest is run by the site owner himself, see below.


Well they stole 0.001006 BTC from me, so shady is quite an understatement. Not that I'm all that salty about it, I knew the risk and it was more an experiment than anything else. Either way the OP has had several days to give me my money back but chose to ignore it, so here's the full analysis of how the scam works. I gave the OP a chance to be honest, as Ryan said upthread it was always possible that they were just doing a "fake it till you make it" but given that they chose not to return my money it's clear that it's just a scam. Which is ultimately, pretty stupid, since by scamming they got my 1k bits and maybe a couple other players until everyone knows it's a scam and they get nothing anymore. Whereas, if they were just being honest, they'd probably make tons more in the long run since there is a demand for an old-style bustabit game, and there are plenty of gamblers who would enjoy such a game. Anyway, onto the analysis - I still had some old code from the Bustabit days lying around that could do this:

Almost all the players on that site use a particular strategy that isn't used by any actual gamblers but is just designed to make them appear human-like. Specifically, for each player there are two arrays defined: Cashouts and Amounts. Each player for each game chooses an amount and a cashout as follows: amount = player.Amounts[game_id % player.Amounts.Length], cashout = player.Cashouts[game_id % player.Cashouts.Length]. Below are those arrays for most players, all these players are basically the same script with different values in the arrays, as can be seen by the arrays having about the same length each time. With this anyone can quickly calculate what amount & cashout a given player would use in any given game.

Player cocky
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.97 - 1.05 - 0 - 6.6 - 3.12 - 4.01 - 3.17 - 1.89 - 1.14 - 2.11 - 1.82 - 0 - 1.01 - 1.92 - 2.93 -
Amounts: 250 - 17000 - 300 - 400 - 25 - 782 - 669 - 200 - 194 - 805 - 256 - 0 - 50000 - 444 - 1200 -

Player learnthegame
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.69 - 1.97 - 1.11 - 1.78 - 2 - 1.82 - 2 - 1.5 - 1.35 - 1.99 - 1.11 - 1.2 - 1.91 - 10 - 0 -
Amounts: 5000 - 9911 - 100 - 3550 - 2000 - 100 - 15000 - 9827 - 1500 - 2075 - 7000 - 400 - 3070 - 6500 - 0 -

Player Cheese
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.02 - 2.18 - 1.14 - 1.33 - 1.5 - 2 - 1.65 -
Amounts: 21000 - 15010 - 2100 - 978 - 6121 - 1040 - 333 -

Player Panther
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 6.27 - 9.89 - 3.14 - 1.11 - 16.12 - 0 - 8.12 - 4.92 - 2.93 - 6.17 - 7.01 - 4.53 - 5 - 7.82 - 8.24 -
Amounts: 55 - 20 - 18 - 300 - 6 - 0 - 132 - 62 - 220 - 42 - 92 - 37 - 33 - 71 - 25 -

Player usa
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.97 - 1.15 - 1.73 - 1.6 - 1.44 - 2 - 2.89 - 1.31 - 1.82 - 3.92 - 0 - 1.2 - 1.62 - 5.19 - 1.47 -
Amounts: 1000 - 4200 - 555 - 1000 - 1700 - 500 - 500 - 1492 - 1000 - 100 - 0 - 5000 - 1000 - 40 - 3500 -

Player Mute
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 2.14 - 2.02 - 1.37 - 1.21 - 1.5 - 1.82 - 0 - 2 - 1.43 - 1.24 - 2 - 1.3 - 1.15 - 1.03 - 1.46 -
Amounts: 1111 - 4110 - 160 - 100 - 80 - 100 - 0 - 1000 - 1000 - 2000 - 3500 - 1234 - 8000 - 5000 - 1000 -

Player Bet360
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.54 - 1.37 - 1.03 - 1.4 - 2.04 - 1.42 - 1.67 - 1.21 - 1.02 - 1.92 - 0 - 1.17 - 1.43 - 1.19 - 2 -
Amounts: 1000 - 3100 - 1980 - 1000 - 1300 - 300 - 300 - 2000 - 5000 - 100 - 0 - 1862 - 1050 - 4000 - 275 -

Player Corona
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.16 - 1.1 -
Amounts: 80000 - 100000 -

Player purity
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 3.22 - 4.68 - 2.01 - 6.01 - 8.63 - 4.6 - 7.92 - 2.74 - 5 - 2.29 - 6.18 - 8.19 - 4.5 - 0 - 2.03 -
Amounts: 140 - 270 - 305 - 160 - 125 - 100 - 200 - 110 - 299 - 150 - 180 - 122 - 100 - 0 - 150 -

Player KGB
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.83 - 1.47 - 1.81 - 2.53 - 1 - 7.82 - 9.21 - 4.54 - 4.69 - 2.04 - 2.11 - 8.02 - 0 - 1.03 - 2.22 -
Amounts: 620 - 812 - 620 - 165 - 50 - 41 - 60 - 89 - 69 - 27 - 400 - 44 - 0 - 10000 - 560 -

Player Tentris
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.92 - 1.74 - 1.21 - 1.5 - 1.92 - 0 - 2 - 1.63 - 1.44 - 2 - 1.69 - 1.05 - 1.83 - 1.96 - 2.04 -
Amounts: 1110 - 1600 - 1000 - 2000 - 100 - 0 - 1681 - 1050 - 260 - 3500 - 1124 - 5000 - 1000 - 260 - 2274 -

Player Mcmohan
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 6.47 - 7.81 - 4.53 - 5 - 7.82 - 8.24 - 6.57 - 8.79 - 5.94 - 1.71 - 18.02 - 0 - 8.82 - 4.72 - 2.43 -
Amounts: 143 - 240 - 135 - 50 - 41 - 60 - 89 - 69 - 27 - 400 - 44 - 0 - 132 - 462 - 820 -

Player Samantha
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.11 - 1.46 - 2 - 2.71 - 1.26 - 1.62 - 6.7 - 1.97 - 1.71 - 1.2 - 8.16 - 2 - 3.72 - 1.04 - 61.31 -
Amounts: 8182 - 711 - 500 - 371 - 861 - 682 - 271 - 610 - 500 - 1000 - 25 - 624 - 50 - 2461 - 33 -

Player GuleGule
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 4.53 - 5 - 7.82 - 8.24 - 6.57 - 8.79 - 5.94 - 1.71 - 18.02 - 0 - 8.82 - 4.72 - 2.43 - 6.47 - 7.81 -
Amounts: 135 - 50 - 41 - 60 - 89 - 69 - 27 - 400 - 44 - 0 - 132 - 462 - 820 - 143 - 240 -

Player polcia
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.04 - 1.02 - 1.02 - 1.08 - 1.24 - 4 - 1.1 -
Amounts: 10000 - 50000 - 19500 - 10000 - 2000 - 1078 - 6241 -

Player Kicku
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.97 - 1.05 - 0 - 6.6 - 3.12 - 4.01 - 3.17 - 1.89 - 1.14 - 2.11 - 1.82 - 0 - 1.01 - 1.92 - 2.93 -
Amounts: 250 - 17000 - 300 - 400 - 25 - 782 - 669 - 200 - 194 - 805 - 256 - 0 - 50000 - 444 - 1200 -

Player Gozail
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.65 - 1.28 - 1.8 - 2 - 1.01 - 2 - 1.97 - 0 - 1.41 - 1.23 - 1.69 - 1.91 - 1.35 - 1.94 - 2 -
Amounts: 1000 - 1111 - 222 - 100 - 900 - 1000 - 250 - 0 - 1000 - 2000 - 500 - 200 - 1000 - 200 - 150 -

Player Bitcrasha
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 0 - 1.41 - 1.23 - 1.69 - 1.91 - 1.35 - 1.94 - 2 - 1.65 - 1.28 - 1.8 - 2 - 1.01 - 2 - 1.97 -
Amounts: 0 - 1000 - 2000 - 500 - 200 - 1000 - 200 - 150 - 1000 - 1111 - 222 - 100 - 900 - 1000 - 250 -

Player Automatic
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.77 - 2.08 - 1.69 - 2.31 - 1.76 - 1.21 - 1.54 - 0 - 1.5 - 1.08 - 2 - 1.42 - 1.23 - 1.2 - 2.34 -
Amounts: 1000 - 500 - 950 - 718 - 1500 - 888 - 371 - 0 - 2000 - 2000 - 612 - 300 - 4000 - 2102 - 666 -

Player Kuruk
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.16 - 1.1 -
Amounts: 80000 - 100000 -

Player XRP
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.14 - 1.02 - 1.02 - 1.04 - 1.24 - 1.04 - 1.1 -
Amounts: 10000 - 25000 - 14500 - 20000 - 15000 - 16008 - 8652 -

Player shuahada
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 2.94 - 1.27 - 1.29 - 7.56 - 1.34 - 1.15 - 2.17 - 1.94 - 0 - 2 - 1.53 - 1.99 - 1.62 - 1.08 - 1.47 -
Amounts: 350 - 1000 - 555 - 50 - 900 - 3000 - 400 - 969 - 0 - 200 - 550 - 300 - 270 - 2921 - 425 -

Player mistries
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 3.12 - 4.01 - 3.17 - 1.89 - 1.14 - 2.11 - 1.82 - 0 - 1.01 - 1.92 - 2.93 - 1.97 - 1.05 - 5.53 - 6.6 -
Amounts: 25 - 782 - 669 - 200 - 194 - 805 - 256 - 0 - 50000 - 444 - 1200 - 250 - 17000 - 300 - 400 -

Player shakaal
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.57 - 2.04 - 2.69 - 2.31 - 1.43 - 1.17 - 1.94 - 2.11 - 0 - 1.03 - 2 - 4.21 - 1.22 - 1.41 - 2.34 -
Amounts: 500 - 1000 - 281 - 1000 - 900 - 3000 - 888 - 268 - 0 - 17250 - 561 - 180 - 860 - 371 - 700 -

Player Gemini
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.11 - 1.46 - 2 - 2.71 - 1.26 - 1.62 - 6.7 - 1.97 -
Amounts: 8001 - 700 - 500 - 377 - 865 - 685 - 274 - 610 -

Player nude
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 8.24 - 6.57 - 8.79 - 5.94 - 1.71 - 0 - 0 - 8.82 - 4.72 - 2.43 - 6.47 - 7.81 - 4.53 - 5 - 7.82 -
Amounts: 60 - 89 - 69 - 27 - 400 - 44 - 0 - 132 - 462 - 820 - 143 - 240 - 135 - 50 - 41 -

Player Kezzy
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.18 - 1.21 - 1.38 - 1.73 - 1.5 - 1.21 - 1.1 - 1.83 - 1.74 - 2.31 - 2 - 1.91 - 1.74 - 0 - 2 -
Amounts: 11000 - 7100 - 370 - 1000 - 10000 - 8000 - 2000 - 4000 - 2500 - 170 - 710 - 200 - 50 - 0 - 5000 -

Player inza
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.45 - 1.03 - 1.66 - 8.14 - 10.16 - 1.37 - 1.21 - 1.5 - 1.92 - 0 - 2 - 1.43 - 1.24 - 100 - 2 -
Amounts: 2200 - 3500 - 1000 - 11 - 50 - 1000 - 4000 - 500 - 100 - 0 - 2000 - 1000 - 5000 - 35 - 1000 -

Player Tough
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.05 - 5.53 - 6.6 - 3.12 - 4.01 - 3.17 - 1.89 - 1.14 - 2.11 - 1.82 - 0 - 1.01 - 1.92 - 2.93 - 1.97 -
Amounts: 17000 - 300 - 400 - 25 - 782 - 669 - 200 - 194 - 805 - 256 - 0 - 50000 - 444 - 1200 - 250 -

Player Ether
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 3.18 - 2.28 - 2.38 - 1.73 - 3 - 1.21 - 1.1 - 2.83 - 1.74 - 2.31 - 2 - 1.91 - 1.74 - 0 - 2 -
Amounts: 12250 - 6500 - 250 - 1000 - 10000 - 7000 - 3000 - 5000 - 2500 - 110 - 150 - 200 - 150 - 0 - 2500 -

Player kickass
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.02 - 6.2 - 0 - 3.51 - 1.76 - 1.03 - 8.17 - 1.51 - 4.13 - 8.1 - 4.11 - 2.29 - 3.01 - 3.81 - 5.14 -
Amounts: 39 - 100 - 0 - 50 - 45 - 48 - 162 - 161 - 24 - 50 - 70 - 30 - 98 - 20 - 48 -

Player Wind
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.82 - 1.92 - 0 - 1.8 - 1.72 - 2.09 - 1.27 - 1.97 - 3 - 6 - 1.38 - 1.24 - 1.77 - 2.89 - 1.14 -
Amounts: 300 - 100 - 0 - 1000 - 250 - 1000 - 2000 - 1000 - 100 - 100 - 1000 - 1500 - 500 - 193 - 1800 -

Player Nyancat
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.92 - 15 - 0 - 20 - 45.11 - 0 - 8.57 - 18.51 - 45.13 - 18.1 - 4.11 - 2.25 - 3.17 - 3.09 - 24.14 -
Amounts: 30 - 10 - 0 - 20 - 5 - 2 - 20 - 10 - 15 - 3 - 6 - 25 - 50 - 20 - 8 -

Player Menuchunk
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.35 - 1.31 - 2.53 - 3.64 - 2.17 - 1.34 - 4.16 - 1.31 - 1.75 - 1.94 - 2.44 - 0 - 1.79 - 1.03 - 1.19 -
Amounts: 7500 - 1000 - 250 - 550 - 430 - 1000 - 690 - 860 - 492 - 800 - 135 - 0 - 4810 - 18000 - 5000 -

Player Shameon
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.11 - 16.12 - 0 - 8.12 - 4.92 - 2.93 - 6.17 - 7.01 - 4.53 - 5 - 7.82 - 8.24 - 6.27 - 9.89 - 3.14 -
Amounts: 300 - 6 - 0 - 132 - 62 - 220 - 42 - 92 - 37 - 33 - 71 - 25 - 55 - 20 - 18 -

Player tribals
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.23 - 1.2 - 2.34 - 1.77 - 2.08 - 1.69 - 2.31 - 1.76 - 1.21 - 1.54 - 0 - 1.5 - 1.28 - 2 - 1.42 -
Amounts: 3200 - 2102 - 666 - 1000 - 500 - 950 - 718 - 1500 - 888 - 371 - 0 - 2500 - 2000 - 612 - 300 -

Player mrSam
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 4 - 4.18 - 2.1 - 2.97 - 0 - 3.41 - 4.21 - 2.19 - 8.51 - 3 - 2.44 - 2 - 2.15 - 2.48 - 6.81 -
Amounts: 100 - 138 - 100 - 250 - 0 - 100 - 200 - 100 - 50 - 100 - 200 - 150 - 100 - 125 - 100 -

Player TotheSky
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.77 - 1.83 - 1.74 - 2.31 - 2 - 1.91 - 1.74 - 0 - 0 - 2 - 1.83 - 1.51 - 1.97 - 1.83 - 1.5 - 1.61 -
Amounts: 2000 - 4000 - 2000 - 1700 - 2010 - 200 - 50 - 0 - 0 - 2192 - 4281 - 5620 - 350 - 2300 - 10000 - 8000 -

Player Akarba
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.08 - 1.47 - 2.94 - 1.27 - 1.29 - 7.56 - 1.34 - 1.15 - 2.17 - 1.94 - 0 - 2 - 1.53 - 1.99 - 1.62 -
Amounts: 2921 - 425 - 350 - 1000 - 555 - 50 - 900 - 3000 - 400 - 969 - 0 - 200 - 550 - 300 - 270 -

Player cryptocoin
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.2 - 2.34 - 1.77 - 2.08 - 1.69 - 2.31 - 1.76 - 1.21 - 1.54 - 0 - 1.5 - 1.28 - 2 - 1.42 - 1.23 -
Amounts: 2102 - 666 - 1000 - 500 - 950 - 718 - 1500 - 888 - 371 - 0 - 2500 - 2000 - 612 - 300 - 3200 -

Player Ohello
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 0 - 1.5 - 2.06 - 10.04 - 1.9 - 2 - 1.26 - 2.5 - 1.38 - 3 - 2.82 - 1.1 - 1.99 - 3.71 - 1.44 -
Amounts: 1 - 560 - 400 - 50 - 481 - 2000 - 816 - 381 - 1628 - 1000 - 100 - 5000 - 428 - 200 - 475 -

Player canyouseeme
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.27 - 1.43 - 2.28 - 1.05 - 1.47 - 1.14 - 4.86 - 3.08 - 2.01 - 1.4 - 1.55 - 0 - 2.06 - 1.93 - 1.84 -
Amounts: 924 - 1000 - 250 - 3500 - 1000 - 1761 - 50 - 100 - 400 - 800 - 500 - 0 - 2000 - 600 - 500 -

Player Sharmota
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.03 - 1.19 - 1.35 - 1.31 - 2.53 - 3.64 - 2.17 - 1.34 - 4.16 - 1.31 - 1.75 - 1.94 - 2.44 - 0 - 1.79 -
Amounts: 18000 - 5000 - 7500 - 1000 - 250 - 550 - 430 - 1000 - 690 - 860 - 492 - 800 - 135 - 0 - 4810 -

Player Lara
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 2 - 1.26 - 2.5 - 1.38 - 3 - 2.82 - 1.1 - 1.99 - 3.71 - 1.44 - 0 - 1.5 - 2.06 - 10.04 - 1.9 -
Amounts: 2000 - 816 - 381 - 1628 - 1000 - 100 - 5000 - 428 - 200 - 475 - 1 - 560 - 400 - 50 - 481 -

Player Gambling
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 2 - 3.18 - 2.28 - 2.38 - 1.73 - 3 - 1.21 - 1.1 - 2.83 - 1.74 - 2.31 - 2 - 1.91 - 1.74 - 0 -
Amounts: 2500 - 12250 - 6500 - 250 - 1000 - 10000 - 7000 - 3000 - 5000 - 2500 - 110 - 150 - 200 - 150 - 0 -

Player maker
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.73 - 3 - 1.21 - 1.1 - 2.83 - 1.74 - 2.31 - 2 - 1.91 - 1.74 - 0 - 2 - 3.18 - 2.28 - 2.38 -
Amounts: 1000 - 10000 - 7000 - 3000 - 5000 - 2500 - 110 - 150 - 200 - 150 - 0 - 2500 - 12250 - 6500 - 250 -

Player income
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 7 - 2.26 - 6.1 - 8.19 - 4.5 - 0 - 2.5 - 3.52 - 4.23 - 2.01 - 6.01 - 8.63 - 4.6 - 7.12 - 2.24 -
Amounts: 99 - 53 - 78 - 85 - 100 - 0 - 135 - 162 - 232 - 127 - 162 - 125 - 10 - 10 - 10 -

Player Yildirim
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 2.82 - 1.1 - 1.99 - 3.71 - 1.44 - 0 - 1.5 - 2.06 - 10.04 - 1.9 - 2 - 1.26 - 2.5 - 1.38 - 3 -
Amounts: 100 - 5000 - 428 - 200 - 475 - 1 - 560 - 400 - 50 - 481 - 2000 - 816 - 381 - 1628 - 1000 -

Player Game
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 6.01 - 8.63 - 4.6 - 7.12 - 2.24 - 7 - 2.26 - 6.1 - 8.19 - 4.5 - 0 - 2.5 - 3.52 - 4.23 - 2.01 -
Amounts: 162 - 125 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 99 - 53 - 78 - 85 - 100 - 0 - 135 - 162 - 232 - 127 -

Player Bitcoin
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 7.82 - 8.24 - 6.57 - 8.79 - 5.94 - 1.71 - 18.02 - 0 - 8.82 - 4.72 - 2.43 - 6.47 - 7.81 - 4.53 - 5 -
Amounts: 41 - 60 - 89 - 69 - 27 - 400 - 44 - 0 - 132 - 462 - 820 - 143 - 240 - 135 - 50 -

Player 1000x
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.89 - 4.19 - 1.01 - 7.72 - 0 - 1.02 - 4.92 - 2.43 - 1.57 - 7.01 - 4.53 - 1.3 - 4.42 - 2.24 - 1.27 -
Amounts: 200 - 664 - 150 - 160 - 0 - 10000 - 500 - 200 - 4000 - 980 - 350 - 3000 - 440 - 650 - 855 -

Player zentecho
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 8.24 - 6.57 - 8.79 - 5.94 - 1.71 - 18.02 - 0 - 8.82 - 4.72 - 2.43 - 6.47 - 7.81 - 4.53 - 5 - 7.82 -
Amounts: 60 - 89 - 69 - 27 - 400 - 44 - 0 - 132 - 462 - 820 - 143 - 240 - 135 - 50 - 41 -

Player Lasvegas
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.75 - 1.94 - 2.44 - 0 - 1.79 - 1.03 - 1.19 - 1.35 - 1.31 - 2.53 - 3.64 - 2.17 - 1.34 - 4.16 - 1.31 -
Amounts: 492 - 800 - 135 - 0 - 4810 - 18000 - 5000 - 7500 - 1000 - 250 - 550 - 430 - 1000 - 690 - 860 -

Player Goddess
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 2 - 1.91 - 1.74 - 0 - 2 - 1.18 - 1.21 - 1.38 - 1.73 - 1.5 - 1.21 - 1.1 - 1.83 - 1.74 - 2.31 -
Amounts: 710 - 200 - 50 - 0 - 5000 - 11000 - 7100 - 370 - 1000 - 10000 - 8000 - 2000 - 4000 - 2500 - 170 -

Player afromaniac
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.35 - 1.11 - 4.03 - 2.64 - 1.17 - 1.34 - 4.16 - 1.31 - 1.75 - 1.94 - 1.44 - 0 - 2.09 - 6.03 - 1.19 -
Amounts: 750 - 4000 - 250 - 350 - 1000 - 1000 - 69 - 791 - 400 - 400 - 825 - 0 - 481 - 100 - 500 -

Player boxer
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 7.82 - 8.24 - 6.27 - 9.89 - 3.14 - 1.11 - 16.12 - 0 - 8.12 - 4.92 - 2.93 - 6.17 - 7.01 - 4.53 - 5 -
Amounts: 71 - 25 - 55 - 20 - 18 - 300 - 6 - 0 - 132 - 62 - 220 - 42 - 92 - 37 - 33 -

Player hackforums
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 3.92 - 0 - 1.2 - 1.62 - 5.19 - 1.47 - 1.97 - 1.15 - 1.73 - 1.6 - 1.44 - 2 - 2.89 - 1.31 - 1.82 -
Amounts: 100 - 0 - 5000 - 1000 - 40 - 3500 - 1000 - 4200 - 555 - 1000 - 1700 - 500 - 500 - 1492 - 1000 -

Player kidsbar
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 18.1 - 4.11 - 2.25 - 3.17 - 3.09 - 24.14 - 1.92 - 15 - 0 - 20 - 45.11 - 70.03 - 8.57 - 18.51 - 45.13 -
Amounts: 3 - 6 - 25 - 50 - 20 - 8 - 30 - 10 - 0 - 20 - 5 - 2 - 20 - 10 - 15 -

Player Aila
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.21 - 1.54 - 0 - 1.5 - 1.28 - 2 - 1.42 - 1.23 - 1.2 - 2.34 - 1.77 - 2.08 - 1.69 - 2.31 - 1.76 -
Amounts: 888 - 371 - 0 - 2500 - 2000 - 612 - 300 - 3200 - 2102 - 666 - 1000 - 500 - 950 - 718 - 1500 -

Player Gnome
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 4.5 - 0 - 2.03 - 3.22 - 4.68 - 2.01 - 6.01 - 8.63 - 4.6 - 7.92 - 2.74 - 5 - 2.29 - 6.18 - 8.19 -
Amounts: 100 - 0 - 150 - 140 - 270 - 305 - 160 - 125 - 100 - 200 - 110 - 299 - 150 - 180 - 122 -

Player arnold
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 0 - 2.5 - 3.52 - 4.23 - 2.01 - 6.01 - 8.63 - 4.6 - 7.12 - 2.24 - 7 - 2.26 - 6.1 - 8.19 - 4.5 -
Amounts: 0 - 135 - 162 - 232 - 127 - 162 - 125 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 99 - 53 - 78 - 85 - 100 -

Player Teki
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 2.97 - 0 - 3.41 - 4.21 - 2.19 - 8.51 - 3 - 2.44 - 2 - 2.15 - 2.48 - 6.81 - 4 - 4.18 - 2.1 -
Amounts: 250 - 0 - 100 - 200 - 100 - 50 - 100 - 200 - 150 - 100 - 125 - 100 - 100 - 138 - 100 -

Player mafia
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 8.16 - 2 - 3.72 - 1.04 - 61.31 - 1.11 - 1.46 - 2 - 2.71 - 1.26 - 1.62 - 6.7 - 1.97 - 1.71 - 1.2 -
Amounts: 25 - 624 - 50 - 2461 - 33 - 8182 - 711 - 500 - 371 - 861 - 682 - 271 - 610 - 500 - 1000 -

Player Grizzly
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.03 - 1.66 - 8.14 - 10.16 - 1.37 - 1.21 - 1.5 - 1.92 - 0 - 2 - 1.43 - 1.24 - 0 - 2 - 1.45 -
Amounts: 3500 - 1000 - 11 - 50 - 1000 - 4000 - 500 - 100 - 0 - 2000 - 1000 - 5000 - 35 - 1000 - 2200 -

Player Suffer
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 3.14 - 1.11 - 16.12 - 0 - 1.03 - 1.32 - 2.93 - 6.17 - 7.01 - 4.53 - 5 - 7.82 - 8.24 - 6.27 - 9.89 -
Amounts: 104 - 345 - 596 - 0 - 30000 - 4500 - 888 - 929 - 476 - 651 - 375 - 156 - 165 - 455 - 700 -

Player soldier
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 10.04 - 1.21 - 1.5 - 2 - 1.65 - 3.02 - 0 -
Amounts: 20 - 9780 - 2261 - 2 - 4816 - 2000 - 0 -

Player genie
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 6.14 - 1.31 - 1.03 - 0 - 1.65 - 1.22 - 2.08 -
Amounts: 200 - 9000 - 15000 - 81 - 1324 - 2000 - 7000 -

Player earnings
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 5.71 - 3.68 - 2 - 3.11 - 9.13 - 6 - 7.12 - 4.14 - 5 - 8.29 - 10 - 4.89 - 6.11 - 0 - 4.83 -
Amounts: 1100 - 2000 - 3000 - 1000 - 1250 - 100 - 2000 - 750 - 1282 - 1000 - 4000 - 650 - 1000 - 0 - 1500 -

Player JKing
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 4.01 - 3.17 - 1.89 - 1.14 - 2.11 - 1.82 - 0 - 1.01 - 1.92 - 2.93 - 1.97 - 1.05 - 5.53 - 6.6 - 3.12 -
Amounts: 782 - 669 - 200 - 194 - 805 - 256 - 0 - 5000 - 444 - 1200 - 250 - 17000 - 300 - 400 - 25 -

Player Santa
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 3.52 - 4.23 - 2.01 - 6.01 - 8.63 - 4.6 - 7.12 - 2.24 - 7 - 2.26 - 6.1 - 8.19 - 4.5 - 0 - 2.5 -
Amounts: 162 - 232 - 127 - 162 - 125 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 99 - 53 - 78 - 85 - 100 - 0 - 135 -

Player MJNewyork
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 2.03 - 3.22 - 4.68 - 2.01 - 6.01 - 8.63 - 4.6 - 7.92 - 2.74 - 5 - 2.29 - 6.18 - 8.19 - 4.5 - 0 -
Amounts: 150 - 140 - 270 - 305 - 160 - 125 - 100 - 200 - 110 - 299 - 150 - 180 - 122 - 100 - 0 -

Player Lucy
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 0 - 2 - 3.18 - 2.28 - 2.38 - 1.73 - 3 - 1.21 - 1.1 - 2.83 - 1.74 - 2.31 - 2 - 1.91 - 1.74 -
Amounts: 0 - 2500 - 250 - 682 - 250 - 790 - 912 - 700 - 7500 - 500 - 265 - 800 - 1500 - 811 - 111 -

Player saint
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 6.57 - 8.79 - 5.94 - 1.71 - 18.02 - 0 - 8.82 - 4.72 - 2.43 - 6.47 - 7.81 - 4.53 - 5 - 7.82 - 8.24 -
Amounts: 89 - 69 - 27 - 400 - 44 - 0 - 132 - 462 - 820 - 143 - 240 - 135 - 50 - 41 - 60 -

Player Jason
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.92 - 15 - 0 - 20 - 45.11 - 70.03 - 8.57 - 18.51 - 45.13 - 18.1 - 4.11 - 2.25 - 3.17 - 3.09 - 24.14 -
Amounts: 30 - 10 - 0 - 20 - 5 - 2 - 20 - 10 - 15 - 3 - 6 - 25 - 50 - 20 - 8 -

Player America
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 0 - 3.51 - 1.76 - 1.03 - 8.17 - 1.51 - 4.13 - 8.1 - 4.11 - 2.29 - 3.01 - 3.81 - 5.14 - 1.02 - 6.2 -
Amounts: 0 - 50 - 45 - 48 - 162 - 161 - 24 - 50 - 70 - 30 - 98 - 20 - 48 - 39 - 100 -

Player Nastrodamas
GameIdCyclerStrategy
Cashouts: 1.21 - 1.38 - 1.73 - 1.5 - 1.21 - 1.1 - 1.83 - 1.74 - 2.31 - 2 - 1.91 - 1.74 - 0 - 2 - 1.18 -
Amounts: 7100 - 370 - 1000 - 10000 - 8000 - 2000 - 4000 - 2500 - 170 - 710 - 200 - 50 - 0 - 5000 - 11000 -

(sorry for the multiple posts, just sharing my findings)

Here's a representative part of the chat:

20:48 Teki: Fuck it
20:49 arnold: ty
20:49 tribals: !prof 30m
20:49 Tentris: greems soon
20:49 Jackpot: @tribals Hit JACKPOT 0.0001 BTC 💰 💰 Earn More BTC under your account in free section. 🥇🍀
20:49 hackforums: !c 100k bits
20:49 Teki: !bst 100
20:49 arnold: !n
20:49 tribals: mama
20:50 Tentris: 5x
20:50 hackforums: !c 1 btc
20:50 Kuruk: nyan
20:50 Teki: greedy
20:50 arnold: yes
20:50 tribals: Next low red
20:50 hackforums: boom
20:50 Tentris: @rainbot
20:50 Teki: lol
20:50 Kuruk: Cool
20:50 arnold: add me

What can be noticed here is that multiple accounts are giving commands to the bustabit bot (!bst, !n, etc) even though the bot obviously doesn't work on this site. Yet that doesn't stop accounts from continuing to give these commands, indeed in the small sample above the account "hackforums" can be seen doing it twice in short succession, completely undeterred by the fact that there is no bot. Upon further examination it quickly becomes clear that this is not a real chat but just a replay of the real bustabit chat. This strongly suggests that the site owner is himself running a script on bustabit that is recording the chat, or at least has done so in the past.

Looking into the other accounts on the site, several things can be determined. First, they're all scripts. Second, almost all of them - especially the bigger players - follow this pattern:

var amount = amounts_array[game_id % amounts_array.length]
var cashout = cashouts_array[game_id % cashouts_array.length]

In other words, they constantly cycle between a fixed set of {amount,cashout} values per game. The length of this cycle tends to be 15. The remaining players follow similar patterns or have partially determinable patterns. These accounts are hence most likely run by the site itself, given their chat output and their behaviour which only really makes sense as a simplistic attempt to appear human-like. Given the peculiarity of almost all of them using the specific pattern above, and the fact that the site owner must be running, or have run, a script on the real bustabit site to get the chat logs it might be possible to determine their account on bustabit by checking for a script running the same pattern.

The game crashes fail verification. On the FAQ is stated: "Since BitCrasha is provably fair, you can verify that yourself https://jsfiddle.net/1L1uqcgv/6/embedded/result/" When you actually do that for game 1099385[1] (the latest game at the time of writing) with hash 8a1fccd8eb96d97ee7bee904878502f5a339c57c6381b8c802b17044f6f9f3a8 then it should've crashed at 1.42x but it actually crashed at 9.07x.

[1] https://bitcrasha.com/game/1099385

I gave it a try and deposited 1000 bits[1], played some games under the username jameer[2], and then when I tried to withdraw again it claimed my password was incorrect even though it's definitely correct (it's saved by chrome). At the same time I noticed a strong drop in other players, compare the number of players between [3] and [4]. I can only assume it's a scam and they lock you out of your account after you've deposited so you can't get your bits back.

[1] https://blockstream.info/tx/ba451a7fad5131bd27460740543932efb3432dcb9e8bba48e1dd342c07776e98
[2] https://bitcrasha.com/user/jameer
[3] https://bitcrasha.com/game/1098693
[4] https://bitcrasha.com/game/1098989

So you have nothing but semantics and quibbling over the meaning of the word "growth"? Do you perhaps have something substantial to say about the argument I made?

Let's define this properly. Let B_0 be the initial bankroll and B_N the bankroll after a sequence of N bets. Then BG is a random variable which, when given said sequence of N bets, takes the value B_0 * log(B_N / B_0) / N. Likewise for PG.

Obviously, and that is indeed the reason why I'm not summing them. I said "in absolute numbers" multiple times now. Anyway, I'm pretty sure my argument is correct, especially since the edge case trivially shows that it is indeed possible for a player to be -EV and +EBG.

It's at least definitely possible for a player to be +EBG yet -EV, the edge case is simple. Suppose the casino bets 100% of its bankroll on each bet, then even though it may have +EV, at some point it's going to lose. So the player will have, with probability one, gained money and hence is at +EBG - though he may require a deep bankroll.

Do you know what a random variable is? Do you know what the expected value of a random variable is? I'm not talking about the expected value of the bet, I'm talking about the expected value of the bankroll growth.

Yes, the expected value of the bankroll growth in absolute numbers. BG and PG are random variables.

Can you check where I'm going wrong with this? Here's how I looked at it:

Let BG and PG be two random variables, BG is the house's bankroll growth and PG is the player's bankroll growth (in absolute numbers). Then:

BG + PG = 0 (money only moves back and forth between the house and the player, so a loss for one is a gain for the other and vice versa)
E[BG + PG] = E[0] (taking the expected value of both sides)
E[BG + PG] = 0 (expected value of a constant is that constant)
E[BG] + E[PG] = 0 (by linearity of expected value)
E[BG] = -E[PG]

Which leads to the player's EBG being the opposite of the house's EBG, so if the house is at -EBG then the player is at +EBG and vice versa. Perhaps by EBG is meant the median bankroll growth and not the mean bankroll growth? In which case the linearity condition above wouldn't apply.

Yes, that's exactly why I'm saying that it would be best if they just stopped referring to it as leverage, because the system doesn't function as one.

I think it would be best if they just stopped referring to it as leverage. It's that description which put me, as an investor, on the wrong track for a while. Specifically, I thought that the leverage would remain constant, however, since offsite is constant and onsite changes in response to betting, the leverage goes up and down as the game progresses.

That was indeed the core error I made with thinking this would be exploitable. I'm still going to have to wrap my head around this sometime, but that's for later.


Yeah I'm new to this domain (until recently on BaB I never even considered anything of the sort). Even though measure theory (of which probability theory is a special case) is kind of my specialty, there's a whole lot of specific aspects to consider with applying it to a casino like Bab. Add to that that I'm mostly stoned as a goat whenever I bother with this, and the result is that I'm pretty error-prone with this

Yes you are right. What is -EBG for A is really just variance for B but B keeps being at long-term +EBG as long as B actually moves his offsite to his onsite as needed. That's where my analysis went wrong, and it is hence probably not exploitable after all.

Well yes, but as B moves coins from his offsite to his onsite then his L (as per post above) changes. Let's consider the simplified situation where A and B have the same investment (say 50 btc onsite and 50 btc offsite), A is lying and B isn't, and B will move his offsite to his onsite when he gets margin called (ie when his onsite reaches 0) and not before. While it is true that B will be able to recover whereas A won't, the probability of their onsite going to 0 is the same since they have the same investment, up until the point where B actually starts moving his offsite to his onsite both A and B will evolve in tandem. So if A has the expectation of negative bankroll growth and going bust then B has the same expectation of his onsite going down too.

Sure, the moment B actually moves some coins from his offsite to his onsite the analysis changes since A and B won't have the same investment anymore, but as long as that doesn't happen B has the same (short-term) expectation of losing his onsite as A does. If A can expect to go bust then B can expect to lose his onsite as well, irrespective of whether B will be able to recover again afterwards or not.

The assumption that B will replenish his onsite with his offsite as he takes losses doesn't hold in real life, there will be a delay before B logs in and makes those changes, and the bankroll can change by a lot very fast - before B might be able to react by moving coins from offsite to onsite. My argument above applies to a constant offsite.

Let L = (onsite + offsite) / onsite. Then, given a certain bet distribution D, whether an investor (or the house as a whole for that matter) is +EBG or -EBG is solely determined by L. Specifically, there will be an L* such that for all L < L* the investor is +EBG and for all L > L* the investor is -EBG. Whether the offsite is real or not has nothing to do with this. Furthermore, given the current structure of the bankroll on BaB, there exists a legal (ie in conformance with the rules/limits) bet distribution D such that a player using D will be at +EBG.

The "realness" of your offsite has nothing whatsoever to do with whether your onsite will go up (+EBG) or down (-EBG). If two people have the exact same investment (say 50 btc onsite + 50 btc offsite) then that investment (specifically their onsite) will take the exact same trajectory. Obviously...

Do take that mail I sent you seriously Ryan, because this isn't just wrong but (as BaB currently stands) exploitably wrong.

I'm sorry, haven't both A and B lost 50 BTC here? So aren't both -EBG? And hence it doesn't matter whether your offsite is real as to whether you'll be +EBG or -EBG? And hence, like I said, Daniel's and DarkStar's claims are simply false?

Maybe let's try this another way: Suppose I invest 50 BTC onsite and 50 BTC offsite. Will I be +EBG or -EBG? And if your response is to ask me "Are you lying about your offsite" then my answer is "I'm not telling you." So go on, will my investment go up (+EBG) or go down (-EBG)?

Again, this is false, obviously so.


And a 50 BTC + 50 BTC real off-site doesn't?