If the W-X-Y scenario is underway (i.e. a secular bear market), then the next secular bull market cycle will be expected to unfold in an A-B-C structure once again —but not necessarily in the same pattern or timespan again.

The risk with the W-X-Y scenario, is that it has the potential to completely collapse the market with no return — i.e. a collapse of a true bubble.
 

Yes, it is still possible that this is a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, termed as a wave-x, in an ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market, which fails to meet the all-time 2017 high.

For now however, the waves appear to be developing impulsively and suggesting a wave-5 is unfolding, eventually towards meeting or exceeding the all-time 2017 high.

At this point in time, a wave-x may develop in the following two scenarios:

• 1. A drop below the 09-JUN low, followed by an advance towards either 11390 or 13340 which develops in corrective waves instead of impulsive; or,
• 2. A drop below the 06-FEB low.

 

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/c1vg8o/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_solstice_update/

The 2019 Bitcoin bull market which began from the lows of 06-FEB-2019, has now retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% of the entire 2018 bear market, thus far into JUN-2019.

The largest pullback of this bull market occurred from 14-MAY to 17-MAY, where a mini flash crash saw a rapid sell-off of up to 25% declines on multiple exchanges, notably pronounced on BITSTAMP and BITMEX. Afterwards, from mid-MAY to mid-JUN, price action produced a choppy sideways affair elapsing a month with no clear direction.

Consequently, it was expected the first wave of the bull market had completed, and the first notable pullback of the bull market was imminently underway, correlating with the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage which gripped the stockmarket. This has proved to be incorrect. The month of choppy sideways price action has resolved with a breakout to the upside, necessitating a revision to the Elliott Wave model…



The characteristics of the 2019 bull market thus far, can be summarised by the following revised Elliott Wave model:


The final and fifth wave of the waveset appears to be underway since 09-JUN. The following price zones speculate where this may terminate; using BITSTAMP prices:


The first aforementioned Fibonacci zone has already been reached; hence, there is a possibility to suggest the uptrend has either completed, or is nearing completion.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) passively tracks the price of Bitcoin, but trades on the OTC markets from Mon to Fri during the hours of US equity markets. The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves; at this point in time a drop to 10.8 is required to suggest the uptrend is complete…



Once the uptrend concludes, it completes the first notable advance of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market. At which point, a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement may be expected for the first notable pullback of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market; perhaps commencing in the week of the Solstice and elapsing a couple of months over the summer lull. Afterwards, the bull market is expected to parabolically reignite by the early autumn and head towards new all-time highs in 2020.

The long-term overall Elliott Wave model suggests four PRIMARY degree waves completed from mid-2010 to early-2019, and the fifth advancing wave is currently underway. Waves of PRIMARY degree elapse from a few months to a couple of years.

A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BNC:BLX) index…


Adjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.



Notable dates and seasonal esoteric trivia…


Guesswork is indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand?

Should the Elliott Wave projection continue as anticipated, then there is a strong possibility that the high of 9990 (Bitfinex) set on 12-MAR-2018 is of quite significance in the following regard:

i. 9990 is just 46 points shy from 9946 which represents the 50% Fibonnaci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market. Either side of this key level currently defines 'bull vs bear' territory.

ii. Should 9990 present the top of a significant wave, it would suggest Bitcoin will now never revisit the psychological 10,000 level.

Hence, a short position is ordered at 9335 (±100 points); 9335 is halfway between the current wave from 9990 to 8770, details as follows:

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 9335
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)*
    STOP: 9990*
    RISK: 6%
    REWARD: 55%

   *Short-term swing traders may elect to close the position, or partially, at 7600 which represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.  
   *Personally, no stop is currently defined since pyramiding short positions from prior higher levels.

Stop-losses of currently active short positions now adjusted to 11700, i.e.

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 11253
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
    STOP: 11700
    RISK: 4.70%
    REWARD: 62%

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 10900
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
    STOP: 11700
    RISK: 8.10%
    REWARD: 60%

Elliott Wave speculative model, indicative of price and structure, not time:

Got my sources on it. Grab it before its late.

I believe there is 3 reason why people panicking. First, uneducated, that's why many people didn't have enough knowledge about how promising cryptocurrencies is. second, is laziness, not all people want to wait for the price to come back up so they partially cut their losses. and the last is FUD, I'm sure the FUD is strong enough, neither it from the government or from the uneducated people.