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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 25/07/2025, 16:46:48 UTC
⭐ Merited by Hueristic (1)
Who would suddenly "need" $9.2-9.4 bil in cash?

I assume that the person is not with us anymore and this is some kind of estate sell, but I digress.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 25/07/2025, 16:32:52 UTC
Never stop DCA’ing


Personally, I prefer weekly rather than daily, but sure  at that rate of $50 per day or maybe $350 per week, maybe a couple of times a week for the buys would be cool with me to try to buy during dips in the week.

Buying the dip at $115K is a crazy thing to experience. Not going to lie, I thought we would all be flying around in helicopters when Bitcoin hit $4K, so maybe hitting a million is that far fetched. I always thought that if it happened people would be too rich, but looking back I guess I always thought that…

It is funny how redistribution of wealth takes place in a somewhat invisible kind of a way.  Some folks take a bit of time, too, to get used to figuring out how to spend their money.

50/day or $350/wk is a solid 18.2K/year DCA and it is probably close to a maximum that a family (or a person) with middle class income (70-150K) in US can afford sans a ramen "diet".
However, 18K a year starting mid 2025 would most likely would not make someone "rich" in 2030, but they might have a good "emergency fund".

If you'll have an average of 40% yearly appreciation during 2025-2030 time frame, my approximation shows about a final sum of $279K value, give or take $20K.
A nice "fund" for emergencies and buying a house, for example, but definitely not "rich".
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 24/07/2025, 20:12:06 UTC
Saylor ups the new preferred offering from 500mil to 2 bil.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-saylors-strategy-boosts-latest-164859138.html

Not bad  Grin
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Merits 3 from 3 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 23/07/2025, 19:36:41 UTC
⭐ Merited by OutOfMemory (1) ,JayJuanGee (1) ,Gachapin (1)
I think I know how this bull market will end: caused by the 'stupid' treasury companies flooding the zone.
There are way too many of them, doing exactly the same 'thing' and expecting a large premium to their NAV.
It ain't going to happen. Remember the SPAC fiasco?

Wall street always tries to squeeze out more juice that the 'lemon' could give, so to speak.
Q4 is when push would come to shove as many treasury companies (XXI and BSTR plus a few on the VB chain) will close their SPACs and start trading.
I expect a few disasters, but don't know which ones will go below par at NAV first.

A canary in the mine: MSTR NAV premium is declining quite rapidly right now and what is even worse, someone is successfully shorting STRD (or maybe investors stopped buying it)-it declined from 97-98 to about 89, which is a significant downward move for a bond that at par (100) pays 10% yield.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 23/07/2025, 18:00:38 UTC
People will do loans more and more, but when i look, the terms are still horrendous, so I still stick to cash and don't do anything fancy for now.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 22/07/2025, 18:08:02 UTC
Bitcoin versus gold ownership in the United States according to a new report from River



https://river.com/learn/files/river-america-report-2025.pdf?ref=blog.river.com

Oh, well

..."for years before 2018 estimates [of percentages held by Americans] relied on....search trends, bitcoin forum participation..."  Shocked

...including, I assume public guesstimates of BCT member stashes.  Cheesy
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Merits 10 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 22/07/2025, 16:25:31 UTC
⭐ Merited by El duderino_ (10)
MSTR premium declined to 64.5% (119.138 bil stock value divided by the price of 607770 btc,which is about 72.410 bil).
js
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Merits 2 from 2 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 21/07/2025, 23:02:21 UTC
⭐ Merited by vapourminer (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)


From the conclusions:
In terms of comparative demonstrated factorisation power, we rank a VIC-20 above an abacus, an abacus above a dog, and a dog above a quantum factorisation physics experiment. Finally, we provided standard evaluation criteria for future claimed quantum factorisations.


With a grain of salt:
The first real quantum computer built by humans would be created completely different than seen or thought before, basically by coincidence or by mistake.
Mark my words  Wink

yeah it will likely be an Issac Newton inventing calculus moment

if it is even possible for a human in a 3d reality to invent that new math needed.

and if it is invent it will appear to be magical or impossible

Our whole existence sometimes appears "magical".
Disregarding the fact that our realm is just one of 10^500 theoretically possible and focusing on Earth.

The more we look at it, it appears more and more special and not average.
Facts:
1. Earth maintained it's surface temperature in a narrow range over 4 billion years despite Sun's luminosity increasing 20-30% over this time frame.
2. There is no other known planet that has tectonic plate movements. Well, we could not study it yet anywhere else, but in our solar system it is the case.
3. Earth was formed by a rare (or very rare) collision of two bodies with a similar mass, causing evaporation of all initial water and ejection of a lot of material into space where it formed an unusually large and close-by satellite, causing tides (which were tremendous initially). Whatever water is on Earth right now was brought in by comets and asteroids, apparently. Therefore, it is entirely possible that almost all earth size and larger planets are covered with water-they could all be waterworlds. It is also entirely possible that tectonic plates movement was initiated by that initial collision. Some scientists suggest that evolution "needs' tectonic plate movements to produce variations in the climate, which possibly speeds up evolution.
4. Earth is on a roughly circular orbit around the galaxy, minimizing disturbances. Earth is also on a stable orbit around a relatively stable star.
5. Among more than 5000 studied star systems, they did not find a single planet that was within 10% of the Earth mass in a "goldilocks zone" around the G or K type star. Kepler 186F is 10% larger, but belongs to a red dwarf and, therefore, is tidally locked to that star making it less hospital to life (one side is likely burning while another is frozen) plus it receives just 1/3 or the energy in comparison to Earth. Planets larger than earth might be waterworlds or mini-Neptunes. Kepler 1649c is also a larger planet and also tidally linked to its red dwarf star. Trappist-1e-is probably our best "shot", despite it being tidally locked. Alas, no atmosphere there has been detected.
https://www.space.com/30172-six-most-earth-like-alien-planets.html

It's a 'survivor' bias, of course, but if civilizations were common, we would have been colonized long time ago and would probably never developed into our current state.
Either that or prior civilizations "evaporated" into other realms (of pure thought or virtual reality?) and don't bother with the current state of matters in the Universe.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 21/07/2025, 22:06:32 UTC

Well, STRK and STRF performed VERY well.
STRD much less so, still much under par, but above $85 it sold for. At $93 it pays about 10.75%, yet people are hesitating to buy and bid it up.

It seems that despite lower nominal yield (9% vs 10% for STRD), STRC might have better reception because of the offering conditions.

We shall see. it it trades at around 85, I might buy some for a trip to 95-99.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 21/07/2025, 20:00:42 UTC
It seems that 80K bitcoin seller with bitcoins from 2011 has put a temporary lid on btc: sold to Saylor+DJT+ other treasuries + ETFs.

Another guess-market does not want to give nearsighted Reeves too much for her 5 (or is it 7?) bil of btc.

This should dissipate in a week or two, perhaps.
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Merits 5 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 21/07/2025, 17:42:28 UTC
⭐ Merited by El duderino_ (5)

444K to 85K would feel so incredibly bad......as usual  Cheesy


If unfortunately this happens, it will be the worst situation I have ever seen, which I never imagined.

It won't be  Cheesy

Percentage-wise it is roughly the same when we went from 20K to 3.2K and from almost 69k to 15.6K.
The absolute numbers would be strikingly different, of course.
btc at 444K is a 9.3 tril "entity". For btc market as a whole to lose 7.5 tril would feel stupendously bad (and very similar in numbers to the Nasdaq plunge from 5K to 1K in 2001-2002).
My "heart" tells me that it won't happen, but my brain tells me that it could.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 21/07/2025, 17:03:48 UTC
Post parity is what we should be looking up to.

2033 I think, maybe after the 2032 halving. We’re not going that high next cycle imo, it’ll be the one after.

I reserve the right to change my mind if we go to $250,000 or more this year.

But I can see in a Rainbow Chart, Bitcoin can reach $20m in 2035

To me this is incredible, but what does rainbow graph lie?


@BitcoinNews21M

Bitcoin is on track to reach $20 million by 2035 🚀


https://x.com/BitcoinNews21M/status/1947304462634156178


444K to 85K would feel so incredibly bad......as usual  Cheesy
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 21/07/2025, 16:12:25 UTC

Jungle are good and it's too good to have a cup of tea/coffee there!!!



10-11 years ago, someone planted "it" in a public park around here (some more secluded spot)-10K plants, lol.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 21/07/2025, 16:09:10 UTC
Post parity is what we should be looking up to.

maybe 2032 or so

could be 2029 if you squint your eyes a little Grin
realistically, more like 2030 (at 40% annual rise, on average).
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Merits 3 from 3 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 20/07/2025, 19:51:15 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1) ,d_eddie (1) ,OutOfMemory (1)
OT and a haiku:
A big discovery, apparently:

https://english.elpais.com/health/2025-07-17/revolution-in-medicine-a-molecule-produced-by-gut-bacteria-causes-atherosclerosis-responsible-for-millions-of-deaths.html

back to you, sonny
a bug releases something
that poisons the heart


#scientific Sunday haiku

Coming next: clinics that will remove imidazole propionate (see the article) from your blood.
Quite interesting.

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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 18/07/2025, 02:22:47 UTC
Bitcoin is steady as it goes...the rest  of the market goes crazy.
Let them.
Still, who is the "big deal" in stablecoins that I cannot see?
I understand why politicos are excited: because those companies would buy Treasuries.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 18/07/2025, 02:18:07 UTC
"Clocks" - a Coldplay Screenplay



 That's gonna leave a mark.


what's the noise?
If i think it is what it is-NBD.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 16/07/2025, 19:16:06 UTC
Fidelity advertizes FBTC on the front page, before you even login.
Wow.
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Merits 2 from 2 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 16/07/2025, 18:35:19 UTC
⭐ Merited by OutOfMemory (1) ,vapourminer (1)
Recent bitcoin treasury companies are slow to start (XXI is still not trading, BSTR Holding-just announced).

Cap raise from inside the existing company is a much faster route-and those are racking dough rapidly as we speak (Metaplanet was one before, but larger US companies are lagging behind-we only have MSTR, but it is so big that each incremental addon increases the value accrued slowly).

I am afraid that this (treasury companies) is where retail will focus on rn, and we are lacking...until XXI and BSTR are approved for trading.
It almost feels like the Internet stocks of 1998-1999, for now.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 16/07/2025, 18:14:32 UTC
TML main stage on fire.... curious whats gonna happen now

TML?

Biggest festival.... Belgiums pride, my home every last weekend of July

mainstage is a true ravage ...

Tomorrowland burning? not a good vibe.