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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
<snip>And of COURSE we front ran nation states!!! Of course we did! Stupid nation states.
On this topic I have thoughts... So. OBVIOUSLY. As in OBVIOUSLY... we are seeing large purchases by various entities.
But empty blocks.
So, I have been saying for a while (possibly starting a little early) that these sorts of purchases are not happening on exchange in the open. But rather lots of Bitcoin being sold by OTC desks and then bundled into single (but LARGE) transactions. Things like this:
Say you are a 50 year old cypherpunk In 2010. Or maybe the family member of one who already passed. And you hold THOUSANDS of Bitcoin. The game is quite different for you than it might be for the average "pleb". You can sell 4295 bitcoin today and finance quite the luxurious life. In fact for more than just you. And perhaps you have that many behind as well... knowing that in time that other half will be worth orders of magnitude more than what you just sold.
So your progeny can live as kings... and you can reap a kingly fortune for the life you have left. (long live the king... really)
But here's the thing. And I am likely early here as well...
Eventually these kings will run out of ammo.
I am not the brightest bulb in the WO. In fact... far from it. Do I need to spell out what happens after the kings have settled the first round?
I imagine not... but let me know because I am willing to keep blathering to a receptive audience.
Well, the entity is transferring FROM Coinbase, not to it, so most likely a whale withdrawing to another account/wallet and not selling.
The rest..sure, some OGs are "stupidly" selling, perhaps.
I guess the number being close to six digists is like an aphrodisiac for a sell by them, assuming a buy (for less that $1) or mine in 2010 .
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Inter fans buying bitcoin?
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
This would make little sense, as the futures are more expensive in normal conditions (contango, positive funding rate).Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/basis-trading.asp
Quote
The speculator who takes the opposite side of this trade will have purchased futures contracts for 25 cents per bushel higher than the spot price (the basis). If that speculator hedged their bet by selling contracts at the spot price ($4.00 per bushel), they would now have a position that is long the basis.
From the same source:
In futures trading using a basis trading strategy, an investor would either "long the basis" or "short the basis" depending on if the trader thinks the basis will increase or decrease.
The opposite side of the trade (short the basis, that is, short actual corn and long futures) means the speculator is expecting corn to go down. In a contango market, this is NOT a market neutral strategy. This isn't how smart money generally moves.This is explained on the complementary page on the same site, documenting the negative basis trade:
The [negative basis, i.e., short corn, long futures] trade is usually done with bonds that are trading at par or at a discount
--snip--
When you short a credit default swap, this means you have bought protection much like an insurance premium. While this might seem counterintuitive, remember that buying protection means you have the right to sell the bond at par value to the seller of the protection in the event of default or another negative credit event. So, buying protection is equal to a short.
--snip--
When you short a credit default swap, this means you have bought protection much like an insurance premium. While this might seem counterintuitive, remember that buying protection means you have the right to sell the bond at par value to the seller of the protection in the event of default or another negative credit event. So, buying protection is equal to a short.
(My emphasis and [clarification]).
In other words, there could be speculators who play the negative basis trade, but only as a form of protection (likely they are already long "basis", that is, physical btc), not for actual speculation. Actual speculation in a contango market (a market where futures are more expensive than the "real thing"), again, entails the normal (positive) basis trade.
well, maybe they expect backwardation soon.
the long and the short of it...some VERY large party has to be doing some shorting (not sure via which mechanism).
Otherwise, constant large buying and no price movement does not make sense.
My suspects are tether and blackrock.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
The liquidity charts vs bitcoin are good for hopium, but so far bitcoin did absolutely nothing in 2025.
"Everybody" seem to be buying, but the price is not moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: a gigantic buying, vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.
It probably changes after the interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.
That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.
"Everybody" seem to be buying, but the price is not moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: a gigantic buying, vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.
It probably changes after the interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.
That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.
cycles are done. we are in the age of pope to be trump.
quoting this to preserve this opinion
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
This would make little sense, as the futures are more expensive in normal conditions (contango, positive funding rate).Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
it depends:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/basis-trading.asp
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
The liquidity charts vs bitcoin are good for hopium, but so far, bitcoin did absolutely nothing in 2025.
"everybody' seem to be buying, but price is not really moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..who knows, maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: gigantic buying , vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.
It probably changes after interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from prior cycles.
That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.
"everybody' seem to be buying, but price is not really moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..who knows, maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: gigantic buying , vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.
It probably changes after interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from prior cycles.
That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
retiring at will?
instead: when to stop living?
coin counting-say no
# Sunday haiku
B retiring at 94
An accomplished life, indeed,
a very rare sight
#a small extra haiku
counting coins to retire...pfft
It's better to continue staking and living fully
.
instead: when to stop living?
coin counting-say no
# Sunday haiku
B retiring at 94
An accomplished life, indeed,
a very rare sight
#a small extra haiku
counting coins to retire...pfft
It's better to continue staking and living fully
.Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
@sminston_with
Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Guide: e-Book Edition 📙
The wait is finally over - you're going to want to bookmark this.
- - -
🧵Thread
Without detailing the exact instructions on how to use the guide, this time around, I will explain the important changes - and from there, please engage, share, and enjoy!
1) Updated Model : This is a critical solution, and I'll explain why. Rather than using the median (50th quantile) power regression model, as was used in previous versions, Smitty's e-Book uses the 5th quantile. Why? Statistically, theoretically, this ensures that 95% of the time the desired annual withdrawal rate (living/spending costs) will not need to be down-adjusted due to volatility - because by definition, only 5% of the price falls below this 'support' line (see my other models). Therefore, you should only expect to need to down-adjust roughly once in 20 years. This makes this e-Book version more conservative, while maintaining realism and (clearly) attainability of stacking targets (see the various pages).
2) e-Book Format: I'm only posting these to X for now; but since in the past there has been so much positive engagement, I wanted to keep the overall 'brand' while enhancing the stylings so that it feels like an easy mini reader for folks comparing spending/stacking scenarios for retirement. It is also high DPI, now with nice borders, headers/footers and even page numbers. Feel free to print out and make a physical copy, or choose your favorite scenario, laminate and post on the wall.
3) Table addition: I've been meaning to include this change for a while. Not all of us are graphic/visually inclined, and indeed many of us are table/spreadsheet inclined. Therefore, below the graphs, I added easy-to-read look-up tables which exactly map to the Retirement Years and Current Age from the graphs, along with exact color-matching according to Current Age. No more needing to follow lines and line intersections; should also help for the visually impaired.
- - -
As always, the key assumptions in the guide to remember:
1. *Assumed 7% annual inflation rate going forward (not easy to predict but historical expansion has been pretty close to this).
2. *Taxes not accounted for - tax policy is too variable and too liable to change in any given year - please do your own homework for your own situation.
3. *You're living to 100 (or at least planning your conservative BTC spend-down plan out to that age).
- - -
So, as always, flip through the replies in this thread, and enjoy the new tool!
Helping you develop a better Bitcoin stacking target for life planning.
X
Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Guide: e-Book Edition 📙
The wait is finally over - you're going to want to bookmark this.
- - -
🧵Thread
Without detailing the exact instructions on how to use the guide, this time around, I will explain the important changes - and from there, please engage, share, and enjoy!
1) Updated Model : This is a critical solution, and I'll explain why. Rather than using the median (50th quantile) power regression model, as was used in previous versions, Smitty's e-Book uses the 5th quantile. Why? Statistically, theoretically, this ensures that 95% of the time the desired annual withdrawal rate (living/spending costs) will not need to be down-adjusted due to volatility - because by definition, only 5% of the price falls below this 'support' line (see my other models). Therefore, you should only expect to need to down-adjust roughly once in 20 years. This makes this e-Book version more conservative, while maintaining realism and (clearly) attainability of stacking targets (see the various pages).
2) e-Book Format: I'm only posting these to X for now; but since in the past there has been so much positive engagement, I wanted to keep the overall 'brand' while enhancing the stylings so that it feels like an easy mini reader for folks comparing spending/stacking scenarios for retirement. It is also high DPI, now with nice borders, headers/footers and even page numbers. Feel free to print out and make a physical copy, or choose your favorite scenario, laminate and post on the wall.
3) Table addition: I've been meaning to include this change for a while. Not all of us are graphic/visually inclined, and indeed many of us are table/spreadsheet inclined. Therefore, below the graphs, I added easy-to-read look-up tables which exactly map to the Retirement Years and Current Age from the graphs, along with exact color-matching according to Current Age. No more needing to follow lines and line intersections; should also help for the visually impaired.
- - -
As always, the key assumptions in the guide to remember:
1. *Assumed 7% annual inflation rate going forward (not easy to predict but historical expansion has been pretty close to this).
2. *Taxes not accounted for - tax policy is too variable and too liable to change in any given year - please do your own homework for your own situation.
3. *You're living to 100 (or at least planning your conservative BTC spend-down plan out to that age).
- - -
So, as always, flip through the replies in this thread, and enjoy the new tool!
Helping you develop a better Bitcoin stacking target for life planning.
X
Fancy...but easy to summarize: no matter what is your age, if you have about 10 bitcoins, you may retire or not work (as retiring at age 5 or 15 seems strange).
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (2)
@jjg pic reminded me of the monk's wisdom in the "White Lotus"
Link or it didn't happen.
jeez, ok
https://youtu.be/H7cZAe3F3rQ?t=117
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
From my experience many decades ago, my (then teenager) interaction with parents when studying math was always very emotional as they simply did not get why I was not getting some concepts.
Grandma (who was a geometry/trigonometry teacher in the middle school) to the rescue...all good (in mid-school).
In high school and later, uni, I was on the autopilot.
Sometimes I feel that too close interaction with parents during study could result in less problem solving oriented mind later on, but I digress.
Grandma (who was a geometry/trigonometry teacher in the middle school) to the rescue...all good (in mid-school).
In high school and later, uni, I was on the autopilot.
Sometimes I feel that too close interaction with parents during study could result in less problem solving oriented mind later on, but I digress.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
Macro guy on bitcoin: to me, a very astute analogy:
https://youtu.be/jh1-OX0pNJc?t=2782
" The door [in bitcoin] is still barely open for the most money on the planet".
https://youtu.be/jh1-OX0pNJc?t=2782
" The door [in bitcoin] is still barely open for the most money on the planet".
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick
I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office
I think it was Hayes's blog
I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office
I think it was Hayes's blog
Here, found it. December 18, 2024. It might have been mentioned by someone else earlier on, during sleepy Joe's reign, but it wouldn't have had the same resonance.
Currently, gold is valued at $42.22/oz on the American balance sheet. Technically speaking, the Treasury issues a gold certificate to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury values at $42.22/oz.
Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed receives a dollar credit, which can be spent on the economy. The larger the devaluation, the higher the TGA balance immediately grows.
This makes sense because, essentially, dollars are being created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. Every $3,824/oz increase in the statutory price of gold generates a $1 trillion increase in the TGA. For example, adjusting the carrying cost to the current spot price of gold would generate a $695 billion TGA credit.
Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed receives a dollar credit, which can be spent on the economy. The larger the devaluation, the higher the TGA balance immediately grows.
This makes sense because, essentially, dollars are being created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. Every $3,824/oz increase in the statutory price of gold generates a $1 trillion increase in the TGA. For example, adjusting the carrying cost to the current spot price of gold would generate a $695 billion TGA credit.
(My emphasis)
Keep in mind Bessent is the puppet master now. Powell is dubbed towel boy (or worse) because he can't and won't do much, despite the apparent position of absolute power he seems to hold. It's the curse of the Fed chair: nominally independent, but factually in serfdom to politics.
Personally, I don't think this will happen. There are subtler ways of printing without printing, and my guess is they will be picked over the very apparent and likely too noisy gold accounting trick.
Bessant is an interesting and enigmatic fellow.
Yeah, he is interesting. When he speaks, I seem to understand where he is going with it..and he is quite polite, it seems, albeit there were rumors of F-words flying around during his alleged confrontation with Elon.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by Hueristic (1)
The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick (without actually selling any), I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office. I think it was Hayes's blog - one of my preferred sources for bitcoin relevant macro analysis - but I wouldn't bet my family jewels on that. At any rate, it's not a new idea, as it's been mentioned several times after Biden went to sleep.
They located the philosophers stone!
Quote
Scientists Discover a Fungus That Produces Real Gold — And You Can Grow It at Home
https://techoreon.com/discovery-of-fungus-producing-real-gold-grow-at-home/
Wow! That's amazing, bro!
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
So Nvidia is buying Bitcoin for its balance sheet and the United States is selling gold to buy Bitcoin. Arizona will create a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the next few days to start stacking Bitcoin, we’re 5% away from liquidating 8 billion dollars worth of shorts and GameStop is still accumulating their Bitcoin purchase. Sounds bullish.
Wait, what. This is extremely bullish.
Regarding the Arizona bill, Governor Hobbs is known to veto most of the bills, let's not get our hopes up there.
GameStop I agree with you, Ryan Cohen has been hinting this a long time.
Nvidia is new to me, do you have any sources?
The US selling gold to buy bitcoin -- I believe it when I see it.
About gold-it's all rumors and innuendo.
They were talking about re-pricing the gold certificates, THEN using funds that would appear on the balance sheet to buy bitcoin.
Nobody was talking about SELLING gold.
If the latter was true, gold would have lost much more than $100 from the top.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Wow!
https://cointelegraph.com/news/elderly-us-victim-loses-330m-bitcoin-in-social-engineering-theft
Very sad.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/elderly-us-victim-loses-330m-bitcoin-in-social-engineering-theft
Very sad.
No details on "advanced social engineering" in the article, which was what i mainly was interested in.
Yeah...speculating...an email from from supposed "coinbase support" or "ledger support", perhaps.
Albeit, this is not "advanced".
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Wow!
https://cointelegraph.com/news/elderly-us-victim-loses-330m-bitcoin-in-social-engineering-theft
Very sad.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/elderly-us-victim-loses-330m-bitcoin-in-social-engineering-theft
Very sad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=075Z7tJC_-I
Sorry, what's your point, pal?
Someone you know got away with the money?
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Interesting...exactly what i was talking about, albeit, NOT available in US:
https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-asset-management-launches-the-coinbase-bitcoin-yield-fund
with 4-8% yearly average yield on bitcoin in BITCOIN, who would ever need to sell?
It's a basis trade fund, using the difference between spot and futures, imho.
https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-asset-management-launches-the-coinbase-bitcoin-yield-fund
with 4-8% yearly average yield on bitcoin in BITCOIN, who would ever need to sell?
It's a basis trade fund, using the difference between spot and futures, imho.
Now if it gets fdic it will be a option, until then, not your keys...
Well, Hal Finney said that there will be bitcoin banks...this is a small step in that direction.
There should be something better than hodling, then selling (while paying tax) and never getting it back in all likelihood (considering the exponential nature of btc).
Just imho