Saylor ups the new preferred offering from 500mil to 2 bil.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-saylors-strategy-boosts-latest-164859138.html

Not bad  

I think I know how this bull market will end: caused by the 'stupid' treasury companies flooding the zone.
There are way too many of them, doing exactly the same 'thing' and expecting a large premium to their NAV.
It ain't going to happen. Remember the SPAC fiasco?

Wall street always tries to squeeze out more juice that the 'lemon' could give, so to speak.
Q4 is when push would come to shove as many treasury companies (XXI and BSTR plus a few on the VB chain) will close their SPACs and start trading.
I expect a few disasters, but don't know which ones will go below par at NAV first.

A canary in the mine: MSTR NAV premium is declining quite rapidly right now and what is even worse, someone is successfully shorting STRD (or maybe investors stopped buying it)-it declined from 97-98 to about 89, which is a significant downward move for a bond that at par (100) pays 10% yield.

People will do loans more and more, but when i look, the terms are still horrendous, so I still stick to cash and don't do anything fancy for now.

Oh, well

..."for years before 2018 estimates [of percentages held by Americans] relied on....search trends, bitcoin forum participation..." 

...including, I assume public guesstimates of BCT member stashes. 

MSTR premium declined to 64.5% (119.138 bil stock value divided by the price of 607770 btc,which is about 72.410 bil).
js

Our whole existence sometimes appears "magical".
Disregarding the fact that our realm is just one of 10^500 theoretically possible and focusing on Earth.

The more we look at it, it appears more and more special and not average.
Facts:
1. Earth maintained it's surface temperature in a narrow range over 4 billion years despite Sun's luminosity increasing 20-30% over this time frame.
2. There is no other known planet that has tectonic plate movements. Well, we could not study it yet anywhere else, but in our solar system it is the case.
3. Earth was formed by a rare (or very rare) collision of two bodies with a similar mass, causing evaporation of all initial water and ejection of a lot of material into space where it formed an unusually large and close-by satellite, causing tides (which were tremendous initially). Whatever water is on Earth right now was brought in by comets and asteroids, apparently. Therefore, it is entirely possible that almost all earth size and larger planets are covered with water-they could all be waterworlds. It is also entirely possible that tectonic plates movement was initiated by that initial collision. Some scientists suggest that evolution "needs' tectonic plate movements to produce variations in the climate, which possibly speeds up evolution.
4. Earth is on a roughly circular orbit around the galaxy, minimizing disturbances. Earth is also on a stable orbit around a relatively stable star.
5. Among more than 5000 studied star systems, they did not find a single planet that was within 10% of the Earth mass in a "goldilocks zone" around the G or K type star. Kepler 186F is 10% larger, but belongs to a red dwarf and, therefore, is tidally locked to that star making it less hospital to life (one side is likely burning while another is frozen) plus it receives just 1/3 or the energy in comparison to Earth. Planets larger than earth might be waterworlds or mini-Neptunes. Kepler 1649c is also a larger planet and also tidally linked to its red dwarf star. Trappist-1e-is probably our best "shot", despite it being tidally locked. Alas, no atmosphere there has been detected.
https://www.space.com/30172-six-most-earth-like-alien-planets.html

It's a 'survivor' bias, of course, but if civilizations were common, we would have been colonized long time ago and would probably never developed into our current state.
Either that or prior civilizations "evaporated" into other realms (of pure thought or virtual reality?) and don't bother with the current state of matters in the Universe.

Well, STRK and STRF performed VERY well.
STRD much less so, still much under par, but above $85 it sold for. At $93 it pays about 10.75%, yet people are hesitating to buy and bid it up.

It seems that despite lower nominal yield (9% vs 10% for STRD), STRC might have better reception because of the offering conditions.

We shall see. it it trades at around 85, I might buy some for a trip to 95-99.

It seems that 80K bitcoin seller with bitcoins from 2011 has put a temporary lid on btc: sold to Saylor+DJT+ other treasuries + ETFs.

Another guess-market does not want to give nearsighted Reeves too much for her 5 (or is it 7?) bil of btc.

This should dissipate in a week or two, perhaps.

Percentage-wise it is roughly the same when we went from 20K to 3.2K and from almost 69k to 15.6K.
The absolute numbers would be strikingly different, of course.
btc at 444K is a 9.3 tril "entity". For btc market as a whole to lose 7.5 tril would feel stupendously bad (and very similar in numbers to the Nasdaq plunge from 5K to 1K in 2001-2002).
My "heart" tells me that it won't happen, but my brain tells me that it could.

444K to 85K would feel so incredibly bad......as usual 

10-11 years ago, someone planted "it" in a public park around here (some more secluded spot)-10K plants, lol.

could be 2029 if you squint your eyes a little
realistically, more like 2030 (at 40% annual rise, on average).

OT and a haiku:
A big discovery, apparently:

https://english.elpais.com/health/2025-07-17/revolution-in-medicine-a-molecule-produced-by-gut-bacteria-causes-atherosclerosis-responsible-for-millions-of-deaths.html

back to you, sonny
a bug releases something
that poisons the heart

#scientific Sunday haiku

Coming next: clinics that will remove imidazole propionate (see the article) from your blood.
Quite interesting.

Bitcoin is steady as it goes...the rest  of the market goes crazy.
Let them.
Still, who is the "big deal" in stablecoins that I cannot see?
I understand why politicos are excited: because those companies would buy Treasuries.

what's the noise?
If i think it is what it is-NBD.

Fidelity advertizes FBTC on the front page, before you even login.
Wow.

Recent bitcoin treasury companies are slow to start (XXI is still not trading, BSTR Holding-just announced).

Cap raise from inside the existing company is a much faster route-and those are racking dough rapidly as we speak (Metaplanet was one before, but larger US companies are lagging behind-we only have MSTR, but it is so big that each incremental addon increases the value accrued slowly).

I am afraid that this (treasury companies) is where retail will focus on rn, and we are lacking...until XXI and BSTR are approved for trading.
It almost feels like the Internet stocks of 1998-1999, for now.

Tomorrowland burning? not a good vibe.

To me it there would not be any cap gains in this scenario. Instead income=value accrued from mined btc sell. Then, profit=income minus expenses.
Small negative cap gains would result from the fee selling mined btc on exchange.
All non-mined btc (that was bought or otherwise accrued...like faucets) would have cap gains calculated the same as for selling of stocks, etc.

TML?